2012 Solid State Projector Report – TOC

Table of Contents
1
Executive Summary
11
1.1.
Part 1: Common Section Executive Summary
11
1.1.1.
Market Segment Analysis
11
1.1.1.1.
Technologies in Competition with Mobile Projectors
12
1.1.1.2.
Developments Likely to Affect the Pico/Micro/Hybrid Market
13
1.1.2.
Pico/Micro/Hybrid Projector Human Factors Analysis
14
1.1.2.1.
Achievable Image Size
14
1.1.2.2.
Laser Safety
16
1.1.3.
Enabling Technology
16
1.1.3.1.
Technology Combinations
16
1.1.3.2.
Light Sources and System Efficiency
17
1.1.3.3.
Power and Battery Technology
18
1.2.
Part 2: Microprojector Executive Summary
18
1.2.1.
Technology for Microprojectors
18
1.2.2.
Markets and User Feedback for Microprojectors
19
1.2.3.
Technologies Competitive with Microprojectors
21
1.2.4.
Microprojector Forecasts
22
2
Introduction & Methodology
24
Part 1: Common Section
26
3
Market Segment Analysis
27
3.1.
What are Pico and Micro Projectors?
27
3.2.
A Brief History of Pico/Micro/Hybrid Projectors
29
3.3.
Market Data Uncertainty
34
3.4.
Pico/Micro Projector Use Models
35
3.4.1.
Picoprojector Use Models
36
3.4.2.
Microprojector Use Models
37
3.4.3.
Hybrid Projector Use Models
37
3.5.
Market Segments for Pico- and Micro- Projectors
37
3.6.
Market Trends Through 2016
40
3.6.1.
Market Pull vs. Technology Push
40
3.6.2.
Lumen Output Increases
41
3.6.3.
Supply Chain Consolidation
42
3.6.4.
Focused Designs
43
3.7.
Milestone Roadmap
44
3.8.
Technologies In Competition with Mobile Projectors
50
3.8.1.
Low-cost Mainstream Projectors
54
3.8.2.
Direct-View LCD and OLED Mobile Displays
56
3.8.3.
e-Paper including Rollable and Foldable Displays
58
3.8.4.
Transflective Displays
61
3.8.5.
Head Mounted Displays
63
3.8.6.
Non-portable Displays
64
4
Pico/Micro Projector Human Factors Analysis
66
4.1.
Mobile Projector Colorimetry
66
4.1.1.
Wavelength Choice for LEDs
69
4.1.2.
Wavelength Choice for Lasers
73
4.2.
Projector Luminance, Image Brightness, Image Size and Contrast
76
4.2.1.
Helmholtz-Kohlrausch Effect
83
4.3.
Resolution
85
4.3.1.
Text Legibility
87
4.4.
Pico/Micro Projector Laser Safety
91
5
Enabling Technology Analysis
97
5.1.
Valid Technology Combinations
97
5.2.
Étendue and Power Limited Pico/Micro Projector Systems
99
5.2.1.
Étendue Limitations
100
5.2.1.1.
Technical Description
100
5.2.2.
Power Limitations
104
5.3.
Image Sources
105
5.3.1.
Scanned Mirror Systems
110
5.3.1.1.
Single Scanning Mirror
111
5.3.1.2.
Two Scanning Mirrors
112
5.3.2.
Micromirror Arrays
114
5.3.3.
LCoS CFA
116
5.3.4.
Color Sequential LCoS
117
5.3.4.1.
Micron
119
5.3.4.2.
Syndiant
121
5.3.4.3.
OmniVision (Formerly Aurora)
122
5.3.4.4.
Himax
123
5.3.5.
Other Approaches to Pico/Micro Projection
124
5.3.5.1.
Light Blue Optics (Phase Modulation Projection)
124
5.3.5.2.
Display Photonics (Transmissive LCD)
128
5.3.5.3.
ImagineOptix Polarization Gratings
129
5.4.
Illumination Sources for Pico- and Micro-Projectors
131
5.4.1.
Polarization and Collection Efficiency
131
5.4.2.
RGB LED Illumination
134
5.4.2.1.
Converted Green LEDs
137
5.4.3.
White LED Illumination
137
5.4.4.
Laser Illumination
141
5.4.4.1.
Laser Speckle
145
5.4.4.2.
Focus-Free Projectors
147
5.4.5.
Hybrid Illumination Systems
148
5.5.
Power for Mobile Projectors
150
5.5.1.
General Power Requirements
150
5.5.2.
Batteries for Mobile Projectors
151
5.6.
Picoprojector/Source Connectivity
152
5.6.1.
Internal Connections
152
5.6.2.
Wired Connections
154
5.6.2.1.
USB
155
5.6.2.2.
HDMI
158
5.6.2.3.
DisplayPort
159
5.6.2.4.
Wired Interfaces Summary
159
5.6.3.
Wireless Connections
161
5.6.3.1.
Wireless Connectivity to the Internet
161
5.6.3.2.
5GHz Band
162
5.6.3.3.
60GHz Band
165
5.6.3.4.
Proprietary Interfaces
169
5.6.3.5.
Other Wireless Protocols
170
5.6.3.6.
Wireless Connectivity Summary
171
5.7.
Pico/Micro Projector Manufacturing Issues
174
5.8.
Hybrid Projector Manufacturing Issues
181
6
Other Applications
184
6.1.
Retail Use
184
6.2.
Automotive
186
6.3.
Aviation
188
6.4.
Industrial
189
6.5.
Medical
191
6.6.
Other Potential Applications
192
Part 2: Microprojector Market Segment
194
7
Microprojector Competitive Analysis
194
7.1.
Technology for Microprojector Systems
194
7.2.
Evolution of Microprojector Modules
196
7.3.
Competitive Analysis of Microprojectors
198
7.3.1.
Example Microprojectors
199
7.3.2.
Competition with Other Systems
201
7.3.2.1.
Business Applications
202
7.3.2.2.
Consumer Applications
202
7.4.
End User Feedback and Use Models for Microprojectors
204
7.4.1.
Optoma ML-500 and Similar 500 Lumen Microprojectors
204
7.4.2.
BenQ Joybee GP1
206
7.4.3.
AAXA M2
207
7.4.4.
End-user Review Summary
209
7.5.
Trend Analysis
209
7.5.1.
Application Trend Factors
209
7.5.2.
Technical Trend Factors
210
7.5.3.
Details on Selected Trends
212
7.5.3.1.
Content Types
212
7.5.3.2.
Wider Content Availability
213
7.5.3.3.
Microprojector Connectivity
213
8
Forecasts
216
8.1.
Total Available Market Analysis
216
8.2.
Market Segmentation
217
8.3.
Penetration of Microprojectors into the Projector Market
220
8.4.
Existing Microprojector Market Analysis
222
8.4.1.
Home Projector Segment
222
8.4.2.
Corporate Projector Segment
226
8.5.
Microprojector Unit Forecasts
229
8.5.1.
Home Projector Segment
229
8.5.2.
Corporate Projector Segment
230
8.5.3.
Market Forecast Summary
231
8.6.
Microprojector Module and Projector Price Evolution
235
8.6.1.
Projector and module prices and price ranges
235
8.6.2.
Projector and Module Average Selling Prices (ASPs)
238
8.7.
Microprojector Revenue Forecasts
238
Table of Figures
Figure 1: Addressable Screen Sizes with an Off-White (0.8) Wall
15
Figure 2: Worldwide Microprojector Forecast
22
Figure 3: Microprojector Module Industry Revenue
23
Figure 4: Finished Microprojector Industry Revenue
24
Figure 5: Four Sample Picoprojectors from CES 2008
30
Figure 6: Five Sample Picoprojectors from CES 2009
31
Figure 7: Sample Pico & Micro Projectors from CES 2010
32
Figure 8: Sample Pico & Micro Projectors from CES 2011
33
Figure 9: Hybrid Projectors
34
Figure 10: Pico/Micro Projector Market Segments Expected Usage Profiles
40
Figure 11: Mainstream Projector for Under $400
55
Figure 12: Direct-View Displays In Competition with Pico & Micro Projectors
56
Figure 13: iPad Connected with a 3M Picoprojector
58
Figure 14: Amazon Kindle e-Book Readers
59
Figure 15: Qualcomm Mirasol 5.7″ display at CES 2011
60
Figure 16: Flexible OLEDs
60
Figure 17: Stretchable OLED from UCLA
61
Figure 18: Transflective Pixel Qi Display
62
Figure 19: Transflective Pixel Qi Display as an External Display Module
62
Figure 20: Example HMDs
64
Figure 21: Large Screen Displays at Lower Price Points than Projectors
65
Figure 22: Colorimetry of RGB LED and Laser Projectors
67
Figure 23: LED Optical Power Required as Red Wavelength Varies
71
Figure 24: LED Power Required as Green Wavelength Varies
72
Figure 25: LED Power Required as Blue Wavelength Varies
72
Figure 26: Laser Power Required as Red Wavelength Varies
74
Figure 27: Laser Power Required as Green Wavelength Varies
75
Figure 28: Laser Power Required as Blue Wavelength Varies
76
Figure 29: Addressable Screen Sizes with a High-gain (2.2) Screen (10:1 Contrast)
79
Figure 30: Addressable Screen Sizes with a Matte-White (1.0) Screen (10:1 Contrast)
80
Figure 31: Addressable Screen Sizes with an Off-White (0.8) Wall (10:1 Contrast)
80
Figure 32: Addressable Screen Sizes with a Darker (0.5) Wall (10:1 Contrast)
81
Figure 33: Addressable Screen Sizes with a High-gain (2.2) Screen (40:1 Contrast)
81
Figure 34: Addressable Screen Sizes with a Matte-White (1.0) Screen (40:1 Contrast)
82
Figure 35: Addressable Screen Sizes with an Off-White (0.8) Wall (40:1 Contrast)
82
Figure 36: Addressable Screen Sizes with a Darker (0.5) Wall (40:1 Contrast)
83
Figure 37: Brightness Enhancement of LED vs Lamp Projectors
84
Figure 38: Laser Safety Evaluation Geometry
92
Figure 39: Laser Safety Evaluations
94
Figure 40: Étendue Definition
101
Figure 41: Étendue with uniform cone angle
101
Figure 42: Étendue conservation with a simple lens
102
Figure 43: MicroVision Bi-axial Mirror Scanner
111
Figure 44: Two Scanning Mirror System from bTendo
112
Figure 45: Funai Picoprojector with Nippon Signal Module
113
Figure 46: Eco Scan Two-Mirror Pico Module from Nippon Signal
114
Figure 47: Members of the DLP Pico Family of Microdisplays
115
Figure 48: Himax CFA LCoS Design
116
Figure 49: Himax CFA LCoS Products
117
Figure 50: Pulse Width Modulation
118
Figure 51: Micron Imagers
121
Figure 52: Products in the Syndiant Suite at CES 2011
121
Figure 53: Syndiant Microdisplays
122
Figure 54: Himax Color Sequential LCoS Panels
123
Figure 55: Himax Color Sequential LCoS Designs
124
Figure 56: Layout of a Light Blue Optics Projector
126
Figure 57: Hologram, Subframe and Frame in a LBO Projector
127
Figure 58: LBO Demonstration Projectors
128
Figure 59: Transmissive LCD Panels for the Display Photonic Systems Architecture
128
Figure 60: Block Diagram of Display Photonic Systems Architecture
129
Figure 61: ImagineOptix PG-Based Pico Module
130
Figure 62: Polarization Recycling in the MM200 Module from 3M
132
Figure 63: LED Recycling from Wavien
133
Figure 64: LED Light Collection with a Color-combining Prism from Syndiant
134
Figure 65: LED combiner from Optoma PK-101
135
Figure 66: Two Channel illumination path
135
Figure 67: Typical Non-Linearities of LEDs
136
Figure 68: Phosphor vs Conventional Green LEDs from Osram
137
Figure 69: Spectra of the Osram Oslon LX Series
138
Figure 70: Citizen LEDs Compared to Other Lamp Types
139
Figure 71: White LED from 3M MPro 110 Picoprojector
140
Figure 72: Red Light Increased by Recycling
141
Figure 73: Efficiency of Blue, Green and Red Lasers
144
Figure 74: Pico/Micro Projectors With Direct Green Lasers
144
Figure 75: Laser Speckle Reduction with FLC Cell
146
Figure 76: Focus-Free Microdisplay-Based Laser Projector
148
Figure 77: Hybrid Illumination Systems From Casio
149
Figure 78: Block Diagram for a Himax Picoprojector Module
153
Figure 79: Pico/Micro Projectors with iPod Docks
154
Figure 80: PicoPix 1020 from Philips/Sagemcom
156
Figure 81: USB 2.0 A/B sockets
157
Figure 82: Video and Power via a USB 3.0 Connection
158
Figure 83: 3M MPro 180 Projector with Wi-Fi and Bluetooth
162
Figure 84: Mobile Connectivity with WHDI and Amimon Low-Power Chips
163
Figure 85: ViewSonic Wi-Fi Connectivity
165
Figure 86: IBM’s Vision of a 60GHz Wireless Home Network
166
Figure 87: WirelessHD Wireless Video Area Network (“WVAN”) Example
168
Figure 88: Proposed Usage Models by the WiGig Alliance
169
Figure 89: Example Pico/Micro Projection Modules
176
Figure 90: Two Modules from Asia Optical
181
Figure 91: Light Blue Optics Projectors used at a Restaurant
185
Figure 92: BrightSign Digital Signage Display
185
Figure 93: HUDs Based on MicroVision PicoP Module at CES 2011
186
Figure 94: F-35 and Virtual HUD
188
Figure 95: Structured Light for 3D Contour Capture
190
Figure 96: Examples of Structured Light for 3D Contour Capture
191
Figure 97: VeinViewer from Christie Medical Holdings
192
Figure 98: Example Microprojectors
199
Figure 99: Are These Microprojectors or Picoprojectors?
201
Figure 100: Amazon Reviews of the Optoma ML-500
205
Figure 101: Amazon Reviews of the BenQ Joybee GP1
206
Figure 102: Amazon Reviews of the AAXA M2
207
Figure 103: Projector Market Development and Forecast
217
Figure 104: Projector Market Development and Forecast
219
Figure 105: Comparison of Market Segment Breakdown for Americas and the World
220
Figure 106: Projector Penetration Curve based on WXGA Market Introduction
221
Figure 107: Trial Microprojector Forecast Based on WXGA Market Penetration
221
Figure 108: Price Trend for Home Projector Market Segment in the Americas
224
Figure 109: Market Data of sub $1,000 Projectors in the Home Projector Market Segment
224
Figure 110: Brightness Trend in the Home Projector Market Segment in the Americas
225
Figure 111: Price Trend for Corporate Projector Market Segment in the Americas
226
Figure 112: Brightness Trend for Corporate Projector Market Segment in the Americas
227
Figure 113: Weight Trend for Corporate Projector Market Segment in the Americas
228
Figure 114: Microprojector Forecast for the Home Market
230
Figure 115: Microprojector Forecast for the Corporate Market
231
Figure 116: Worldwide Microprojector Forecast
232
Figure 117: Conservative Worldwide Microprojector Forecast
233
Figure 118: Expected Worldwide Microprojector Forecast
233
Figure 119: Optimistic Worldwide Microprojector Forecast
234
Figure 120: Microprojector Module Price Range
237
Figure 121: Microprojector Price Range
237
Figure 122: Microprojector Module Industry Revenue
239
Figure 123: Finished Microprojector Industry Revenue
239
Table of Tables
Table 1: Pico/Micro/Hybrid Projector Market Segments
12
Table 2: Technology Combinations for Pico/Micro/Hybrid projectors
17
Table 3: Microprojector Module Price and Performance Evolution
19
Table 4: Pico, Micro and Mainstream Projector Differentiators
28
Table 5: Projector Market Segments for Projectors with Solid State Illumination
38
Table 6: Pico/Micro Projector Market Segments Expected Usage Profiles
39
Table 7: Lumen Increases Through 2016 for Pico and Micro Projectors
41
Table 8: Roadmap of Events Expected to Affect Mobile Projector Sales
45
Table 9: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technologies vs. Micros/Picos
51
Table 10: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technologies vs Hybrids
52
Table 11: Specifications for the Vivitek Model D510
55
Table 12: Properties of Various Color Gamuts in Figure 22
68
Table 13: Optimum and Acceptable Peak LED Wavelengths for Displays
70
Table 14: Optimum and Acceptable Laser Wavelengths for Displays
73
Table 15: Luminance Limits of Projector Categories
76
Table 16: Illumination from Various Sources
78
Table 17: Resolution Requirements for Pico/Micro Projectors
85
Table 18: Minimum and Target Resolutions for Various Market Segments
86
Table 19: Text Character Counts for Various Display Resolutions
88
Table 20: Text Character Counts for Various Display Resolutions and Projector Lumens
90
Table 21: Technology Combinations for Picoprojectors and Microprojectors
98
Table 22: Example Étendues
103
Table 23: Comparison of Microdisplay/Scanning Device Suppliers
107
Table 24: Micron Microdisplay Specifications
120
Table 25: Syndiant Microdisplay Specifications
122
Table 26: Himax CS Microdisplay Specifications
123
Table 27: Laser Category Definitions
141
Table 28: Availability of Different Laser Categories
142
Table 29: Laser Wall Plug Efficiency
142
Table 30: Approaches to Speckle Reduction
145
Table 31: Picoprojector Power Consumption Categories
150
Table 32: Advantages and Disadvantages of Various Wired Formats
159
Table 33: 60MHz Bandwidth Allocation
166
Table 34: Advantages and Disadvantages of Various Wireless Formats
171
Table 35: Pico/Micro Projector Module Components
174
Table 36: Pico/Micro Projector Module Manufacturers
177
Table 37: Factors Affecting the Design of Hybrid Projectors
182
Table 38: Use of Technology in Microprojectors
195
Table 39: Consumer Microprojector Module Evolution (Cost Optimized)
197
Table 40: Business/Home Theater Microprojector Module Evolution (Performance Optimized)
198
Table 41: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technology in the Business Market
202
Table 42: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technology in the Consumer Market
203
Table 43: Use Models for the Optoma ML-500
205
Table 44: Application Trend Factors for Microprojectors
210
Table 45: Technology & Application Trend Factors for Stand-alone Picoprojectors
211
Table 46: Microprojector Content Types
212
Table 47: Microprojector Interface Types & Sources
214
Table 48: Breakdown of Market Segments by Application
218
Table 49: Breakdown of Corporate Market Segments
229
Table 50: Module and Projector Prices used in the Revenue Forecasts
236
Table 51: ASPs for Modules and Projectors in Home and Corporate Markets
238