Table of Contents
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1 | Executive Summary | 11 |
1.1. | Part 1: Common Section Executive Summary | 11 |
1.1.1. | Market Segment Analysis | 11 |
1.1.2. | Pico/Micro/Hybrid Projector Human Factors Analysis | 14 |
1.1.3. | Enabling Technology | 17 |
1.2. | Part 2: Hybrid Projector Executive Summary | 19 |
1.2.1. | Technology for Hybrid Projectors | 19 |
1.2.2. | Markets and User Feedback for Hybrid Projectors | 19 |
1.2.3. | Technologies Competitive with Hybrid Projectors | 20 |
1.2.4. | Hybrid Projector Forecasts | 22 |
2 | Introduction & Methodology | 23 |
3 | Part 1: Common Section | 25 |
3 | Market Segment Analysis | 26 |
3.1. | What are Pico and Micro Projectors? | 26 |
3.2. | A Brief History of Pico/Micro/Hybrid Projectors | 28 |
3.3. | Market Data Uncertainty | 33 |
3.4. | Pico/Micro/Hybrid Projector Use Models | 35 |
3.4.1. | Picoprojector Use Models | 35 |
3.4.2. | Microprojector Use Models | 36 |
3.4.3. | Hybrid Projector Use Models | 36 |
3.5. | Market Segments for Pico- and Micro- Projectors | 37 |
3.6. | Market Trends Through 2017 | 39 |
3.6.1. | Market Pull vs. Technology Push | 39 |
3.6.2. | Lumen Output Increases | 40 |
3.6.3. | Supply Chain Consolidation | 42 |
3.6.4. | Focused Designs | 43 |
3.7. | Milestone Roadmap | 44 |
3.8. | Technologies In Competition with Mobile Projectors | 50 |
3.8.1. | Low-cost Mainstream Projectors | 54 |
3.8.2. | Direct-View LCD and OLED Mobile Displays | 56 |
3.8.3. | e-Paper including Rollable and Foldable Displays | 58 |
3.8.4. | Transflective Displays | 61 |
3.8.5. | Head Mounted Displays | 63 |
3.8.6. | Non-portable Displays | 64 |
4 | Pico/Micro Projector Human Factors Analysis | 66 |
4.1. | Mobile Projector Colorimetry | 66 |
4.1.1. | Wavelength Choice for LEDs | 69 |
4.1.2. | Wavelength Choice for Lasers | 73 |
4.2. | Projector Luminance, Image Brightness, Image Size and Contrast | 76 |
4.2.1. | Helmholtz-Kohlrausch Effect | 83 |
4.3. | Resolution | 85 |
4.3.1. | Text Legibility | 87 |
4.4. | Mobile Projector Laser Safety | 91 |
5 | Enabling Technology Analysis | 97 |
5.1. | Valid Technology Combinations | 97 |
5.2. | Étendue and Power Limited Mobile Projector Systems | 100 |
5.2.1. | Étendue Limitations | 100 |
5.2.2. | Power Limitations | 105 |
5.3. | Image Sources | 105 |
5.3.1. | Scanned Mirror Systems | 111 |
5.3.2. | Micromirror Arrays | 114 |
5.3.3. | LCoS CFA | 116 |
5.3.4. | Color Sequential LCoS | 117 |
5.3.5. | Other Approaches to Pico/Micro Projection | 124 |
5.4. | Illumination Sources for Pico, Micro and Hybrid Projectors | 131 |
5.4.1. | Polarization and Collection Efficiency | 131 |
5.4.2. | RGB LED Illumination | 134 |
5.4.3. | White LED Illumination | 137 |
5.4.4. | Laser Illumination | 141 |
5.4.5. | Hybrid Illumination Systems | 148 |
5.5. | Power for Mobile Projectors | 150 |
5.5.1. | General Power Requirements | 150 |
5.5.2. | Batteries for Mobile Projectors | 151 |
5.6. | Projector/Source Connectivity | 152 |
5.6.1. | Internal Connections | 152 |
5.6.2. | Wired Connections | 154 |
5.6.3. | Wireless Connections | 160 |
5.7. | Pico/Micro Projector Manufacturing Issues | 173 |
5.8. | Hybrid Projector Manufacturing Issues | 180 |
6 | Other Applications | 184 |
6.1. | Retail Use | 184 |
6.2. | Automotive | 186 |
6.3. | Aviation | 189 |
6.4. | Industrial | 190 |
6.5. | Medical | 192 |
6.6. | Other Potential Applications | 193 |
7 | Part 2: Hybrid Market Segment | 195 |
7 | Hybrid Projector Competitive Analysis | 195 |
7.1. | Current Hybrid Projectors | 196 |
7.2. | Technology for Hybrid Projector Systems | 197 |
7.2.1. | Technology for Hybrid Illumination | 199 |
7.2.2. | Technology of Existing Hybrid Projectors | 200 |
7.2.3. | Evolution of Hybrid Projectors | 202 |
7.3. | Application of Hybrid Projectors | 210 |
7.3.1. | Educational Applications | 210 |
7.3.2. | Business Applications | 213 |
7.3.3. | Home Applications | 213 |
7.4. | Competitive Analysis of Hybrid Projectors | 214 |
7.4.1. | Competition from Lamp-Based Mainstream Projectors | 214 |
7.4.2. | Competition from High-output LED Projectors | 215 |
7.4.3. | Competition from Direct View Displays | 215 |
7.4.4. | Competition by Market Segment | 216 |
7.5. | End User Feedback and Use Models for Hybrid Projectors | 219 |
7.6. | Technology and Markets Trend Analysis | 221 |
7.7. | Hybrid Projector Purchase Decision Factors | 224 |
8 | Hybrid Projector Forecast | 228 |
8.1. | Forecasting Method | 228 |
8.2. | The Projector Market | 229 |
8.2.1. | Market Segmentation by Application | 231 |
8.2.2. | Market Segmentation by Brightness | 235 |
8.2.3. | Market Segmentation by Price | 235 |
8.2.4. | Total Available Market (TAM) Analysis | 238 |
8.3. | Sales Penetration Analysis | 241 |
8.3.1. | Projector Market Penetration Curves | 241 |
8.3.2. | Hybrid Projector Penetration Curves | 242 |
9 | Hybrid Projector Forecast Results | 244 |
9.1. | Hybrid Projector Unit Forecasts | 244 |
9.2. | Hybrid Projector Forecast by Brightness Range | 244 |
9.3. | Hybrid Projector Revenue Forecasts | 247 |
9.3.1. | Projector Price Development | 247 |
9.3.2. | Hybrid Projector Price Premium | 248 |
9.3.3. | Hybrid Projector Forecast | 249 |
9.4. | Market Upside Potential | 251 |
Table of Figures
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Figure 1: Addressable Screen Sizes with an Off-White (0.8) Wall | 15 | |
Figure 2: Worldwide Hybrid Projector Forecast | 22 | |
Figure 3: Hybrid Projector Industry Revenue | 22 | |
Figure 4: Four Sample Picoprojectors from CES 2008 | 29 | |
Figure 5: Five Sample Picoprojectors from CES 2009 | 30 | |
Figure 6: Sample Pico & Micro Projectors from CES 2010 | 31 | |
Figure 7: Sample Pico & Micro Projectors from CES 2011 | 32 | |
Figure 8: Hybrid Projectors | 33 | |
Figure 9: Pico/Micro Projector Market Segments Expected Usage Profiles | 39 | |
Figure 10: Mainstream Projector for Under $400 | 55 | |
Figure 11: Direct-View Displays In Competition with Pico & Micro Projectors | 56 | |
Figure 12: iPad Connected with a 3M Picoprojector | 58 | |
Figure 13: Amazon Kindle e-Book Readers | 59 | |
Figure 14: Qualcomm Mirasol 5.7” display at CES 2011 | 60 | |
Figure 15: Flexible OLEDs | 60 | |
Figure 16: Stretchable OLED from UCLA | 61 | |
Figure 17: Transflective Pixel Qi Display | 62 | |
Figure 18: Transflective Pixel Qi Display as an External Display Module | 62 | |
Figure 19: Example HMDs | 64 | |
Figure 20: Large Screen Displays at Lower Price Points than Projectors | 65 | |
Figure 21: Colorimetry of RGB LED and Laser Projectors | 67 | |
Figure 22: LED Optical Power Required as Red Wavelength Varies | 71 | |
Figure 23: LED Power Required as Green Wavelength Varies | 72 | |
Figure 24: LED Power Required as Blue Wavelength Varies | 72 | |
Figure 25: Laser Power Required as Red Wavelength Varies | 74 | |
Figure 26: Laser Power Required as Green Wavelength Varies | 75 | |
Figure 27: Laser Power Required as Blue Wavelength Varies | 76 | |
Figure 28: Addressable Screen Sizes with a High-gain (2.2) Screen (10:1 Contrast) | 79 | |
Figure 29: Addressable Screen Sizes with a Matte-White (1.0) Screen (10:1 Contrast) | 80 | |
Figure 30: Addressable Screen Sizes with an Off-White (0.8) Wall (10:1 Contrast) | 80 | |
Figure 31: Addressable Screen Sizes with a Darker (0.5) Wall (10:1 Contrast) | 81 | |
Figure 32: Addressable Screen Sizes with a High-gain (2.2) Screen (40:1 Contrast) | 81 | |
Figure 33: Addressable Screen Sizes with a Matte-White (1.0) Screen (40:1 Contrast) | 82 | |
Figure 34: Addressable Screen Sizes with an Off-White (0.8) Wall (40:1 Contrast) | 82 | |
Figure 35: Addressable Screen Sizes with a Darker (0.5) Wall (40:1 Contrast) | 83 | |
Figure 36: Brightness Enhancement of LED vs Lamp Projectors | 84 | |
Figure 37: Laser Safety Evaluation Geometry | 92 | |
Figure 38: Laser Safety Evaluations | 94 | |
Figure 39: Étendue Definition | 101 | |
Figure 40: Étendue with uniform cone angle | 102 | |
Figure 41: Étendue conservation with a simple lens | 102 | |
Figure 42: MicroVision Bi-axial Mirror Scanner | 112 | |
Figure 43: Two Scanning Mirror System from bTendo | 113 | |
Figure 44: Funai Picoprojector with Nippon Signal Module | 113 | |
Figure 45: Eco Scan Two-Mirror Pico Module from Nippon Signal | 114 | |
Figure 46: Members of the DLP Pico Family of Microdisplays | 115 | |
Figure 47: Himax CFA LCoS Design | 116 | |
Figure 48: Himax CFA LCoS Products | 117 | |
Figure 49: Pulse Width Modulation | 118 | |
Figure 50: Micron Imagers | 121 | |
Figure 51: Products in the Syndiant Suite at CES 2011 | 121 | |
Figure 52: Syndiant Microdisplays | 122 | |
Figure 53: Himax Color Sequential LCoS Panels | 123 | |
Figure 54: Himax Color Sequential LCoS Designs | 124 | |
Figure 55: Layout of a Light Blue Optics Projector | 126 | |
Figure 56: Hologram, Subframe and Frame in a LBO Projector | 127 | |
Figure 57: LBO Demonstration Projectors | 128 | |
Figure 58: Transmissive LCD Panels for the Display Photonic Systems Architecture | 128 | |
Figure 59: Block Diagram of Display Photonic Systems Architecture | 129 | |
Figure 60: ImagineOptix PG-Based Pico Module | 130 | |
Figure 61: Polarization Recycling in the MM200 Module from 3M | 132 | |
Figure 62: LED Recycling from Wavien | 133 | |
Figure 63: LED Light Collection with a Color-combining Prism from Syndiant | 134 | |
Figure 64: LED combiner from Optoma PK-101 | 135 | |
Figure 65: Two Channel illumination path | 135 | |
Figure 66: Typical Non-Linearities of LEDs | 136 | |
Figure 67: Phosphor vs Conventional Green LEDs from Osram | 137 | |
Figure 68: Spectra of the Osram Oslon LX Series | 138 | |
Figure 69: Citizen LEDs Compared to Other Lamp Types | 139 | |
Figure 70: White LED from 3M MPro 110 Picoprojector | 140 | |
Figure 71: Red Light Increased by Recycling | 141 | |
Figure 72: Efficiency of Blue, Green and Red Lasers | 144 | |
Figure 73: Pico/Micro Projectors With Direct Green Lasers | 144 | |
Figure 74: Laser Speckle Reduction with FLC Cell | 146 | |
Figure 75: Focus-Free Microdisplay-Based Laser Projector | 148 | |
Figure 76: Hybrid Illumination Systems From Casio | 149 | |
Figure 77: Block Diagram for a Himax Picoprojector Module | 153 | |
Figure 78: Pico/Micro Projectors with iPod Docks | 154 | |
Figure 79: PicoPix 1020 from Philips/Sagemcom | 155 | |
Figure 80: USB 2.0 A/B sockets | 157 | |
Figure 81: Video and Power via a USB 3.0 Connection | 158 | |
Figure 82: 3M MPro 180 Projector with Wi-Fi and Bluetooth | 161 | |
Figure 83: Mobile Connectivity with WHDI and Amimon Low-Power Chips | 163 | |
Figure 84: ViewSonic Wi-Fi Connectivity | 164 | |
Figure 85: IBM’s Vision of a 60GHz Wireless Home Network | 165 | |
Figure 86: WirelessHD Wireless Video Area Network (“WVAN”) Example | 167 | |
Figure 87: Proposed Usage Models by the WiGig Alliance | 168 | |
Figure 88: Example Pico/Micro Projection Modules | 175 | |
Figure 89: Two Modules from Asia Optical | 180 | |
Figure 90: Light Blue Optics Projectors used at a Restaurant | 185 | |
Figure 91: BrightSign Digital Signage Display | 185 | |
Figure 92: Casio “Virtual Presenter” | 186 | |
Figure 93: HUDs Based on MicroVision PicoP Module at CES 2011 | 187 | |
Figure 94: F-35 and Virtual HUD | 189 | |
Figure 95: Structured Light for 3D Contour Capture | 191 | |
Figure 96: Examples of Structured Light for 3D Contour Capture | 192 | |
Figure 97: VeinViewer from Christie Medical Holdings | 193 | |
Figure 98: Example Hybrid Projectors | 197 | |
Figure 99: Hybrid Illumination Systems From Casio | 201 | |
Figure 100: Hybrid Illumination System From BenQ | 202 | |
Figure 101: Projector Resolution Trend with Year | 205 | |
Figure 102: Projector Resolution Trend with Lumens | 205 | |
Figure 103: Projector Lumen Trend | 206 | |
Figure 104: Price Premium of Hybrid Projectors | 208 | |
Figure 105: Summary of End-User Reviews for Casio Hybrid Projectors | 219 | |
Figure 106: 1080p vs. WXGA | 220 | |
Figure 107: Hybrid Projector Forecast Methodology | 228 | |
Figure 108: Projector Market Development and Forecast | 230 | |
Figure 109: Projector Sales and Forecast by Region | 230 | |
Figure 110: Worldwide Projector Sales Forecast in Units by Market Segment | 232 | |
Figure 111: Corporate & Home Market Breakdown for Americas and the World | 233 | |
Figure 112: Institutional & Public Market Breakdown for Americas and the World | 234 | |
Figure 113: Worldwide Projector Brightness Development in the 1,000 – 7,000 Lm. Range | 235 | |
Figure 114: Projector Sales by Price Points in the Americas | 236 | |
Figure 115: Average Sales Price Trend of Projectors in the Americas | 237 | |
Figure 116: Price Development | 238 | |
Figure 117: Hybrid Projector Available Market based on Brightness Distribution | 239 | |
Figure 118: Worldwide TAM for Hybrid Projectors | 240 | |
Figure 119: Historic Projector Market Penetration Rates | 242 | |
Figure 120: Penetration Curves for Hybrid Projectors | 243 | |
Figure 121: Worldwide Hybrid Projector Forecast | 244 | |
Figure 122: Optimistic Worldwide Hybrid Projector Forecast by Brightness Range | 245 | |
Figure 123: Expected Worldwide Hybrid Projector Forecast by Brightness Range | 246 | |
Figure 124: Conservative Worldwide Hybrid Projector Forecast by Brightness Range | 246 | |
Figure 125: Price Decline Model for Projectors in the Americas | 247 | |
Figure 126: Expected Price Premium Decline of Hybrid Projectors | 249 | |
Figure 127: Expected Price Development of Hybrid Projectors by Brightness Range | 250 | |
Figure 128: Hybrid Projector Revenue Forecast | 251 | |
Table of Tables
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Table 1: Pico/Micro/Hybrid Projector Market Segments | 12 | |
Table 2: Technology Combinations for Pico/Micro/Hybrid projectors | 17 | |
Table 3: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technology in the Education Market | 21 | |
Table 4: Pico, Micro and Mainstream Projector Differentiators | 27 | |
Table 5: Projector Market Segments for Projectors with Solid State Illumination | 37 | |
Table 6: Pico/Micro Projector Market Segments Expected Usage Profiles | 38 | |
Table 7: Lumen Increases Through 2016 for Pico and Micro Projectors | 40 | |
Table 8: Hybrid Projector Evolution: Lumens and Resolution | 42 | |
Table 9: Roadmap of Events Expected to Affect Mobile Projector Sales | 45 | |
Table 10: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technologies vs. Micros/Picos | 51 | |
Table 11: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technologies vs Hybrids | 52 | |
Table 12: Specifications for the Vivitek Model D510 | 55 | |
Table 13: Properties of Various Color Gamuts in Figure 21 | 68 | |
Table 14: Optimum and Acceptable Peak LED Wavelengths for Displays | 70 | |
Table 15: Optimum and Acceptable Laser Wavelengths for Displays | 73 | |
Table 16: Luminance Limits of Projector Categories | 76 | |
Table 17: Illumination from Various Sources | 78 | |
Table 18: Resolution Requirements for Pico/Micro Projectors | 85 | |
Table 19: Minimum and Target Resolutions for Various Market Segments | 86 | |
Table 20: Text Character Counts for Various Display Resolutions | 88 | |
Table 21: Text Character Counts for Various Display Resolutions and Projector Lumens | 90 | |
Table 22: Technology Combinations for Pico, Micro and Hybrid Projectors | 98 | |
Table 23: Example Étendues | 104 | |
Table 24: Comparison of Microdisplay/Scanning Device Suppliers | 107 | |
Table 25: Micron Microdisplay Specifications | 120 | |
Table 26: Syndiant Microdisplay Specifications | 122 | |
Table 27: Himax CS Microdisplay Specifications | 123 | |
Table 28: Laser Category Definitions | 141 | |
Table 29: Availability of Different Laser Categories | 142 | |
Table 30: Laser Wall Plug Efficiency | 142 | |
Table 31: Approaches to Speckle Reduction | 145 | |
Table 32: Picoprojector Power Consumption Categories | 151 | |
Table 33: Advantages and Disadvantages of Various Wired Formats | 159 | |
Table 34: 60MHz Bandwidth Allocation | 166 | |
Table 35: Advantages and Disadvantages of Various Wireless Formats | 171 | |
Table 36: Pico/Micro Projector Module Components | 173 | |
Table 37: Pico/Micro Projector Module Manufacturers | 177 | |
Table 38: Factors Affecting the Design of Hybrid Projectors | 181 | |
Table 39: Current Hybrid Projectors | 196 | |
Table 40: Use of Technology in 2000 Lm. – 5000 Lm. Hybrid Projectors | 197 | |
Table 41: Technology Factors that Would Eliminate the Need for Hybrid Projectors | 200 | |
Table 42: Factors Likely to Increase Lumen Output of Hybrid Projectors | 203 | |
Table 43: Hybrid Projector Evolution: Most Popular Lumen Output | 209 | |
Table 44: Hybrid Projector Evolution: Hybrid Upper Lumen Limit | 210 | |
Table 45: Projector Requirements for the Education Market | 211 | |
Table 46: School Technology Sales Season | 213 | |
Table 47: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technology in the Education Market | 216 | |
Table 48: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technology in the Business Market | 217 | |
Table 49: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technology in the Consumer Market | 218 | |
Table 50: Likes and Dislikes of Reviewers of Casio Hybrid Projectors | 219 | |
Table 51: Trend Factors Affecting Hybrid Projectors | 222 | |
Table 52: Projector Purchase Factor Development | 224 | |
Table 53: Purchase Decision Factor Rating | 227 | |
Table 54 – Breakdown of Market Segments by Application | 231 | |
Table 55 Hybrid Projector Addressable Market | 239 | |
Table 56: Worldwide Hybrid Projector Revenue Forecast | 250 |