2012 Hybrid Projector Report – TOC

Table of Contents
1 Executive Summary 11
1.1. Part 1: Common Section Executive Summary 11
1.1.1. Market Segment Analysis 11
1.1.2. Pico/Micro/Hybrid Projector Human Factors Analysis 14
1.1.3. Enabling Technology 17
1.2. Part 2: Hybrid Projector Executive Summary 19
1.2.1. Technology for Hybrid Projectors 19
1.2.2. Markets and User Feedback for Hybrid Projectors 19
1.2.3. Technologies Competitive with Hybrid Projectors 20
1.2.4. Hybrid Projector Forecasts 22
2 Introduction & Methodology 23
3 Part 1: Common Section 25
3 Market Segment Analysis 26
3.1. What are Pico and Micro Projectors? 26
3.2. A Brief History of Pico/Micro/Hybrid Projectors 28
3.3. Market Data Uncertainty 33
3.4. Pico/Micro/Hybrid Projector Use Models 35
3.4.1. Picoprojector Use Models 35
3.4.2. Microprojector Use Models 36
3.4.3. Hybrid Projector Use Models 36
3.5. Market Segments for Pico- and Micro- Projectors 37
3.6. Market Trends Through 2017 39
3.6.1. Market Pull vs. Technology Push 39
3.6.2. Lumen Output Increases 40
3.6.3. Supply Chain Consolidation 42
3.6.4. Focused Designs 43
3.7. Milestone Roadmap 44
3.8. Technologies In Competition with Mobile Projectors 50
3.8.1. Low-cost Mainstream Projectors 54
3.8.2. Direct-View LCD and OLED Mobile Displays 56
3.8.3. e-Paper including Rollable and Foldable Displays 58
3.8.4. Transflective Displays 61
3.8.5. Head Mounted Displays 63
3.8.6. Non-portable Displays 64
4 Pico/Micro Projector Human Factors Analysis 66
4.1. Mobile Projector Colorimetry 66
4.1.1. Wavelength Choice for LEDs 69
4.1.2. Wavelength Choice for Lasers 73
4.2. Projector Luminance, Image Brightness, Image Size and Contrast 76
4.2.1. Helmholtz-Kohlrausch Effect 83
4.3. Resolution 85
4.3.1. Text Legibility 87
4.4. Mobile Projector Laser Safety 91
5 Enabling Technology Analysis 97
5.1. Valid Technology Combinations 97
5.2. Étendue and Power Limited Mobile Projector Systems 100
5.2.1. Étendue Limitations 100
5.2.2. Power Limitations 105
5.3. Image Sources 105
5.3.1. Scanned Mirror Systems 111
5.3.2. Micromirror Arrays 114
5.3.3. LCoS CFA 116
5.3.4. Color Sequential LCoS 117
5.3.5. Other Approaches to Pico/Micro Projection 124
5.4. Illumination Sources for Pico, Micro and Hybrid Projectors 131
5.4.1. Polarization and Collection Efficiency 131
5.4.2. RGB LED Illumination 134
5.4.3. White LED Illumination 137
5.4.4. Laser Illumination 141
5.4.5. Hybrid Illumination Systems 148
5.5. Power for Mobile Projectors 150
5.5.1. General Power Requirements 150
5.5.2. Batteries for Mobile Projectors 151
5.6. Projector/Source Connectivity 152
5.6.1. Internal Connections 152
5.6.2. Wired Connections 154
5.6.3. Wireless Connections 160
5.7. Pico/Micro Projector Manufacturing Issues 173
5.8. Hybrid Projector Manufacturing Issues 180
6 Other Applications 184
6.1. Retail Use 184
6.2. Automotive 186
6.3. Aviation 189
6.4. Industrial 190
6.5. Medical 192
6.6. Other Potential Applications 193
7 Part 2: Hybrid Market Segment 195
7 Hybrid Projector Competitive Analysis 195
7.1. Current Hybrid Projectors 196
7.2. Technology for Hybrid Projector Systems 197
7.2.1. Technology for Hybrid Illumination 199
7.2.2. Technology of Existing Hybrid Projectors 200
7.2.3. Evolution of Hybrid Projectors 202
7.3. Application of Hybrid Projectors 210
7.3.1. Educational Applications 210
7.3.2. Business Applications 213
7.3.3. Home Applications 213
7.4. Competitive Analysis of Hybrid Projectors 214
7.4.1. Competition from Lamp-Based Mainstream Projectors 214
7.4.2. Competition from High-output LED Projectors 215
7.4.3. Competition from Direct View Displays 215
7.4.4. Competition by Market Segment 216
7.5. End User Feedback and Use Models for Hybrid Projectors 219
7.6. Technology and Markets Trend Analysis 221
7.7. Hybrid Projector Purchase Decision Factors 224
8 Hybrid Projector Forecast 228
8.1. Forecasting Method 228
8.2. The Projector Market 229
8.2.1. Market Segmentation by Application 231
8.2.2. Market Segmentation by Brightness 235
8.2.3. Market Segmentation by Price 235
8.2.4. Total Available Market (TAM) Analysis 238
8.3. Sales Penetration Analysis 241
8.3.1. Projector Market Penetration Curves 241
8.3.2. Hybrid Projector Penetration Curves 242
9 Hybrid Projector Forecast Results 244
9.1. Hybrid Projector Unit Forecasts 244
9.2. Hybrid Projector Forecast by Brightness Range 244
9.3. Hybrid Projector Revenue Forecasts 247
9.3.1. Projector Price Development 247
9.3.2. Hybrid Projector Price Premium 248
9.3.3. Hybrid Projector Forecast 249
9.4. Market Upside Potential 251
Table of Figures
Figure 1: Addressable Screen Sizes with an Off-White (0.8) Wall 15
Figure 2: Worldwide Hybrid Projector Forecast 22
Figure 3: Hybrid Projector Industry Revenue 22
Figure 4: Four Sample Picoprojectors from CES 2008 29
Figure 5: Five Sample Picoprojectors from CES 2009 30
Figure 6: Sample Pico & Micro Projectors from CES 2010 31
Figure 7: Sample Pico & Micro Projectors from CES 2011 32
Figure 8: Hybrid Projectors 33
Figure 9: Pico/Micro Projector Market Segments Expected Usage Profiles 39
Figure 10: Mainstream Projector for Under $400 55
Figure 11: Direct-View Displays In Competition with Pico & Micro Projectors 56
Figure 12: iPad Connected with a 3M Picoprojector 58
Figure 13: Amazon Kindle e-Book Readers 59
Figure 14: Qualcomm Mirasol 5.7” display at CES 2011 60
Figure 15: Flexible OLEDs 60
Figure 16: Stretchable OLED from UCLA 61
Figure 17: Transflective Pixel Qi Display 62
Figure 18: Transflective Pixel Qi Display as an External Display Module 62
Figure 19: Example HMDs 64
Figure 20: Large Screen Displays at Lower Price Points than Projectors 65
Figure 21: Colorimetry of RGB LED and Laser Projectors 67
Figure 22: LED Optical Power Required as Red Wavelength Varies 71
Figure 23: LED Power Required as Green Wavelength Varies 72
Figure 24: LED Power Required as Blue Wavelength Varies 72
Figure 25: Laser Power Required as Red Wavelength Varies 74
Figure 26: Laser Power Required as Green Wavelength Varies 75
Figure 27: Laser Power Required as Blue Wavelength Varies 76
Figure 28: Addressable Screen Sizes with a High-gain (2.2) Screen (10:1 Contrast) 79
Figure 29: Addressable Screen Sizes with a Matte-White (1.0) Screen (10:1 Contrast) 80
Figure 30: Addressable Screen Sizes with an Off-White (0.8) Wall (10:1 Contrast) 80
Figure 31: Addressable Screen Sizes with a Darker (0.5) Wall (10:1 Contrast) 81
Figure 32: Addressable Screen Sizes with a High-gain (2.2) Screen (40:1 Contrast) 81
Figure 33: Addressable Screen Sizes with a Matte-White (1.0) Screen (40:1 Contrast) 82
Figure 34: Addressable Screen Sizes with an Off-White (0.8) Wall (40:1 Contrast) 82
Figure 35: Addressable Screen Sizes with a Darker (0.5) Wall (40:1 Contrast) 83
Figure 36: Brightness Enhancement of LED vs Lamp Projectors 84
Figure 37: Laser Safety Evaluation Geometry 92
Figure 38: Laser Safety Evaluations 94
Figure 39: Étendue Definition 101
Figure 40: Étendue with uniform cone angle 102
Figure 41: Étendue conservation with a simple lens 102
Figure 42: MicroVision Bi-axial Mirror Scanner 112
Figure 43: Two Scanning Mirror System from bTendo 113
Figure 44: Funai Picoprojector with Nippon Signal Module 113
Figure 45: Eco Scan Two-Mirror Pico Module from Nippon Signal 114
Figure 46: Members of the DLP Pico Family of Microdisplays 115
Figure 47: Himax CFA LCoS Design 116
Figure 48: Himax CFA LCoS Products 117
Figure 49: Pulse Width Modulation 118
Figure 50: Micron Imagers 121
Figure 51: Products in the Syndiant Suite at CES 2011 121
Figure 52: Syndiant Microdisplays 122
Figure 53: Himax Color Sequential LCoS Panels 123
Figure 54: Himax Color Sequential LCoS Designs 124
Figure 55: Layout of a Light Blue Optics Projector 126
Figure 56: Hologram, Subframe and Frame in a LBO Projector 127
Figure 57: LBO Demonstration Projectors 128
Figure 58: Transmissive LCD Panels for the Display Photonic Systems Architecture 128
Figure 59: Block Diagram of Display Photonic Systems Architecture 129
Figure 60: ImagineOptix PG-Based Pico Module 130
Figure 61: Polarization Recycling in the MM200 Module from 3M 132
Figure 62: LED Recycling from Wavien 133
Figure 63: LED Light Collection with a Color-combining Prism from Syndiant 134
Figure 64: LED combiner from Optoma PK-101 135
Figure 65: Two Channel illumination path 135
Figure 66: Typical Non-Linearities of LEDs 136
Figure 67: Phosphor vs Conventional Green LEDs from Osram 137
Figure 68: Spectra of the Osram Oslon LX Series 138
Figure 69: Citizen LEDs Compared to Other Lamp Types 139
Figure 70: White LED from 3M MPro 110 Picoprojector 140
Figure 71: Red Light Increased by Recycling 141
Figure 72: Efficiency of Blue, Green and Red Lasers 144
Figure 73: Pico/Micro Projectors With Direct Green Lasers 144
Figure 74: Laser Speckle Reduction with FLC Cell 146
Figure 75: Focus-Free Microdisplay-Based Laser Projector 148
Figure 76: Hybrid Illumination Systems From Casio 149
Figure 77: Block Diagram for a Himax Picoprojector Module 153
Figure 78: Pico/Micro Projectors with iPod Docks 154
Figure 79: PicoPix 1020 from Philips/Sagemcom 155
Figure 80: USB 2.0 A/B sockets 157
Figure 81: Video and Power via a USB 3.0 Connection 158
Figure 82: 3M MPro 180 Projector with Wi-Fi and Bluetooth 161
Figure 83: Mobile Connectivity with WHDI and Amimon Low-Power Chips 163
Figure 84: ViewSonic Wi-Fi Connectivity 164
Figure 85: IBM’s Vision of a 60GHz Wireless Home Network 165
Figure 86: WirelessHD Wireless Video Area Network (“WVAN”) Example 167
Figure 87: Proposed Usage Models by the WiGig Alliance 168
Figure 88: Example Pico/Micro Projection Modules 175
Figure 89: Two Modules from Asia Optical 180
Figure 90: Light Blue Optics Projectors used at a Restaurant 185
Figure 91: BrightSign Digital Signage Display 185
Figure 92: Casio “Virtual Presenter” 186
Figure 93: HUDs Based on MicroVision PicoP Module at CES 2011 187
Figure 94: F-35 and Virtual HUD 189
Figure 95: Structured Light for 3D Contour Capture 191
Figure 96: Examples of Structured Light for 3D Contour Capture 192
Figure 97: VeinViewer from Christie Medical Holdings 193
Figure 98: Example Hybrid Projectors 197
Figure 99: Hybrid Illumination Systems From Casio 201
Figure 100: Hybrid Illumination System From BenQ 202
Figure 101: Projector Resolution Trend with Year 205
Figure 102: Projector Resolution Trend with Lumens 205
Figure 103: Projector Lumen Trend 206
Figure 104: Price Premium of Hybrid Projectors 208
Figure 105: Summary of End-User Reviews for Casio Hybrid Projectors 219
Figure 106: 1080p vs. WXGA 220
Figure 107: Hybrid Projector Forecast Methodology 228
Figure 108: Projector Market Development and Forecast 230
Figure 109: Projector Sales and Forecast by Region 230
Figure 110: Worldwide Projector Sales Forecast in Units by Market Segment 232
Figure 111: Corporate & Home Market Breakdown for Americas and the World 233
Figure 112: Institutional & Public Market Breakdown for Americas and the World 234
Figure 113: Worldwide Projector Brightness Development in the 1,000 – 7,000 Lm. Range 235
Figure 114: Projector Sales by Price Points in the Americas 236
Figure 115: Average Sales Price Trend of Projectors in the Americas 237
Figure 116: Price Development 238
Figure 117: Hybrid Projector Available Market based on Brightness Distribution 239
Figure 118: Worldwide TAM for Hybrid Projectors 240
Figure 119: Historic Projector Market Penetration Rates 242
Figure 120: Penetration Curves for Hybrid Projectors 243
Figure 121: Worldwide Hybrid Projector Forecast 244
Figure 122: Optimistic Worldwide Hybrid Projector Forecast by Brightness Range 245
Figure 123: Expected Worldwide Hybrid Projector Forecast by Brightness Range 246
Figure 124: Conservative Worldwide Hybrid Projector Forecast by Brightness Range 246
Figure 125: Price Decline Model for Projectors in the Americas 247
Figure 126: Expected Price Premium Decline of Hybrid Projectors 249
Figure 127: Expected Price Development of Hybrid Projectors by Brightness Range 250
Figure 128: Hybrid Projector Revenue Forecast 251
Table of Tables
Table 1: Pico/Micro/Hybrid Projector Market Segments 12
Table 2: Technology Combinations for Pico/Micro/Hybrid projectors 17
Table 3: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technology in the Education Market 21
Table 4: Pico, Micro and Mainstream Projector Differentiators 27
Table 5: Projector Market Segments for Projectors with Solid State Illumination 37
Table 6: Pico/Micro Projector Market Segments Expected Usage Profiles 38
Table 7: Lumen Increases Through 2016 for Pico and Micro Projectors 40
Table 8: Hybrid Projector Evolution: Lumens and Resolution 42
Table 9: Roadmap of Events Expected to Affect Mobile Projector Sales 45
Table 10: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technologies vs. Micros/Picos 51
Table 11: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technologies vs Hybrids 52
Table 12: Specifications for the Vivitek Model D510 55
Table 13: Properties of Various Color Gamuts in Figure 21 68
Table 14: Optimum and Acceptable Peak LED Wavelengths for Displays 70
Table 15: Optimum and Acceptable Laser Wavelengths for Displays 73
Table 16: Luminance Limits of Projector Categories 76
Table 17: Illumination from Various Sources 78
Table 18: Resolution Requirements for Pico/Micro Projectors 85
Table 19: Minimum and Target Resolutions for Various Market Segments 86
Table 20: Text Character Counts for Various Display Resolutions 88
Table 21: Text Character Counts for Various Display Resolutions and Projector Lumens 90
Table 22: Technology Combinations for Pico, Micro and Hybrid Projectors 98
Table 23: Example Étendues 104
Table 24: Comparison of Microdisplay/Scanning Device Suppliers 107
Table 25: Micron Microdisplay Specifications 120
Table 26: Syndiant Microdisplay Specifications 122
Table 27: Himax CS Microdisplay Specifications 123
Table 28: Laser Category Definitions 141
Table 29: Availability of Different Laser Categories 142
Table 30: Laser Wall Plug Efficiency 142
Table 31: Approaches to Speckle Reduction 145
Table 32: Picoprojector Power Consumption Categories 151
Table 33: Advantages and Disadvantages of Various Wired Formats 159
Table 34: 60MHz Bandwidth Allocation 166
Table 35: Advantages and Disadvantages of Various Wireless Formats 171
Table 36: Pico/Micro Projector Module Components 173
Table 37: Pico/Micro Projector Module Manufacturers 177
Table 38: Factors Affecting the Design of Hybrid Projectors 181
Table 39: Current Hybrid Projectors 196
Table 40: Use of Technology in 2000 Lm. – 5000 Lm. Hybrid Projectors 197
Table 41: Technology Factors that Would Eliminate the Need for Hybrid Projectors 200
Table 42: Factors Likely to Increase Lumen Output of Hybrid Projectors 203
Table 43: Hybrid Projector Evolution: Most Popular Lumen Output 209
Table 44: Hybrid Projector Evolution: Hybrid Upper Lumen Limit 210
Table 45: Projector Requirements for the Education Market 211
Table 46: School Technology Sales Season 213
Table 47: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technology in the Education Market 216
Table 48: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technology in the Business Market 217
Table 49: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technology in the Consumer Market 218
Table 50: Likes and Dislikes of Reviewers of Casio Hybrid Projectors 219
Table 51: Trend Factors Affecting Hybrid Projectors 222
Table 52: Projector Purchase Factor Development 224
Table 53: Purchase Decision Factor Rating 227
Table 54 – Breakdown of Market Segments by Application 231
Table 55 Hybrid Projector Addressable Market 239
Table 56: Worldwide Hybrid Projector Revenue Forecast 250