2011 Pico Projector Phone Report
Table of Contents
1
Executive Summary
10
1.1.
Part 1 Executive Summary
10
1.1.1.
Market Segment Analysis
10
1.1.2.
Pico/Micro Projector Human Factors Analysis
12
1.1.3.
Enabling Technology
14
1.2.
Part 2: Cell Phone Handsets Executive Summary
16
1.2.1.
Projector Phone Market Analysis
16
1.2.2.
End-User Projector Phone Purchase Decision Analysis
18
1.2.3.
Service Provider Projector Phone Purchase Decision Analysis
19
1.2.4.
Projector Phone Forecast
20
Part 1:
Pico/Microprojector Common Section
22
2
Introduction & Methodology
23
3
Market Segment Analysis
25
3.1.
What are Pico and Micro Projectors?
25
3.2.
A Brief History of Pico/Micro Projectors
26
3.3.
Market Data Uncertainty
31
3.4.
Pico/Micro Projector Use Models
31
3.5.
Market Segments for Pico- and Micro- Projectors
33
3.6.
Market Trends Through 2016
35
3.6.1.
Market Pull vs. Technology Push
35
3.6.2.
Lumen Output Increases
35
3.6.3.
Supply Chain Consolidation
35
3.6.4.
Focused Designs
36
3.7.
Milestone Roadmap
36
3.8.
Technologies In Competition with Mobile Projectors
41
3.8.1.
Low-cost Mainstream Projectors
43
3.8.2.
Direct-View LCD and OLED Displays
44
3.8.3.
e-Paper including Rollable and Foldable Displays
47
3.8.4.
Transflective Displays
49
3.8.5.
Head Mounted Displays
50
3.8.6.
Non-portable Displays
52
4
Pico/Micro Projector Human Factors Analysis
53
4.1.
Mobile Projector Colorimetry
53
4.1.1.
Wavelength Choice for LEDs
56
4.1.2.
Wavelength Choice for Lasers
59
4.2.
Projector Luminance, Image Brightness, Image Size and Contrast
62
4.2.1.
Helmholtz-Kohlrausch Effect
66
4.3.
Resolution
68
4.3.1.
Text Legibility
69
4.4.
Pico/Micro Projector Laser Safety
73
5
Enabling Technology Analysis
77
5.1.
Valid Technology Combinations
77
5.2.
Étendue and Power Limited Pico/Micro Projector Systems
79
5.2.1.
Étendue Limitations
80
5.2.2.
Power Limitations
84
5.3.
Image Sources
85
5.3.1.
Scanned Mirror Systems
90
5.3.2.
Micromirror Arrays
93
5.3.3.
LCoS CFA
94
5.3.4.
Color Sequential LCoS
96
5.3.5.
Other Approaches to Pico/Micro Projection
103
5.4.
Illumination Sources for Pico- and Micro-Projectors
109
5.4.1.
Polarization and Collection Efficiency
109
5.4.2.
RGB LED Illumination
112
5.4.3.
White LED Illumination
115
5.4.4.
Laser Illumination
117
5.5.
Power for Mobile Projectors
123
5.5.1.
General Power Requirements
123
5.5.2.
Batteries for Mobile Projectors
124
5.6.
Picoprojector/Source Connectivity
124
5.6.1.
Internal Connections
125
5.6.2.
Wired Connections
126
5.6.3.
Wireless Connections
132
5.7.
Pico/Micro Projector Manufacturing Issues
143
6
Other Applications
151
6.1.
Retail Use
151
6.2.
Automotive
152
6.3.
Aviation
155
6.4.
Industrial
156
6.5.
Medical
158
6.6.
Other Potential Applications
160
Part 2:
Projector Phone Market Segment
161
7
Projector Phone Competitive Analysis
161
7.1.
Price-Performance-Competitive Analysis
161
7.1.1.
Picoprojector Technology Competition
164
7.1.2.
Competition from Other Technologies
165
7.1.3.
Trend Analysis
167
8
Projector Phone Market Analysis
169
8.1.
Market Development Analysis
169
8.1.1.
Handset Technology and Applications
169
8.1.2.
Growth of Mobile Data Services
171
8.1.3.
Regional Aspects likely to Affect the Picoprojector/Handset Penetration
175
8.1.4.
TV Replacement
183
8.2.
Consumer Product Feedback
187
8.3.
Marketing and Technical Factor Summary
188
8.3.1.
Application Trend Factors
188
8.3.2.
Technical Trend Factors
189
9
Projector Phone Purchase Decision Analysis
191
9.1.
Overview of Purchase Decision Analysis
191
9.2.
Parameter Definitions
193
9.3.
Analysis of End User Purchase Decisions
194
9.4.
Analysis of Service Provider Purchase Decisions
201
10
Projector Phone Forecast Model Analysis
203
10.1.
TAM Analysis
203
10.1.1.
Total Available Market
203
10.1.2.
Adjusted Total Available Market
204
10.2.
Sales Penetration Analysis
204
11
Projector Phone Forecast Results
212
11.1.
Historical Data
212
11.2.
Projector Phones Unit Forecasts
213
11.3.
Projector Phone Revenue Forecasts
214
11.4.
Embedded Picoprojector Forecast Discussion
215
Table of Figures
Figure 1: Addressable Screen Sizes with an Off-White (0.8) Wall
13
Figure 2: 2011 Importance vs. Expectations
19
Figure 3: Sales Forecasts for Picoprojectors Embedded in Handsets
21
Figure 4: Report Methodology Flow Chart
24
Figure 5: Four Sample Picoprojectors from CES 2008
27
Figure 6: Five Sample Picoprojectors from CES 2009
28
Figure 7: Sample Picoprojectors from CES 2010
29
Figure 8: Sample Picoprojectors from CES 2011
30
Figure 9: Pico/Micro Projector Market Segments Expected Usage Profiles
34
Figure 10: Mainstream Projectors for Under $400
44
Figure 11: Direct-View Displays In Competition with Pico & Micro Projectors
45
Figure 12: iPad Connected with a 3M Picoprojector
46
Figure 13: Amazon Kindle e-Book Readers
48
Figure 14: Qualcomm Mirasol 5.7" display at CES 2011
48
Figure 15: Transflective Pixel Qi Display
50
Figure 16: Transflective Pixel Qi Display as an External Display Module
50
Figure 17: Example HMDs
51
Figure 18: Colorimetry of RGB LED and Laser Projectors
54
Figure 19: LED Optical Power Required as Red Wavelength Varies
57
Figure 20: LED Power Required as Green Wavelength Varies
58
Figure 21: LED Power Required as Blue Wavelength Varies
58
Figure 22: Laser Power Required as Red Wavelength Varies
60
Figure 23: Laser Power Required as Green Wavelength Varies
61
Figure 24: Laser Power Required as Blue Wavelength Varies
61
Figure 25: Addressable Screen Sizes with a High-gain (2.2) Screen
64
Figure 26: Addressable Screen Sizes with a Matte-White (1.0) Screen
65
Figure 27: Addressable Screen Sizes with an Off-White (0.8) Wall
65
Figure 28: Addressable Screen Sizes with a Darker (0.5) Wall
66
Figure 29: Brightness Enhancement of LED vs Lamp Projectors
67
Figure 30: Laser Safety Evaluation Geometry
74
Figure 31: Laser Safety Evaluations
75
Figure 32: Étendue Definition
81
Figure 33: Étendue with uniform cone angle
81
Figure 34: Étendue conservation with a simple lens
82
Figure 35: MicroVision Bi-axial Mirror Scanner
91
Figure 36: Two Scanning Mirror System from bTendo
92
Figure 37: Funai Picoprojector with Nippon Signal Module
92
Figure 38: Eco Scan Two-Mirror Pico Module from Nippon Signal
93
Figure 39: Members of the DLP Pico Family of Microdisplays
94
Figure 40: Himax CFA LCoS Design
95
Figure 41: Himax CFA LCoS Products
95
Figure 42: Pulse Width Modulation
97
Figure 43: Micron Imagers
99
Figure 44: Products in the Syndiant Suite at CES 2011
100
Figure 45: Syndiant Microdisplays
101
Figure 46: Himax Color Sequential LCoS Panels
102
Figure 47: Himax Color Sequential LCoS Designs
103
Figure 48: Layout of a Light Blue Optics Projector
104
Figure 49: Hologram, Subframe and Frame in a LBO Projector
105
Figure 50: LBO Demonstration Projectors
106
Figure 51: Transmissive LCD Panels for the Display Photonic Systems Architecture
107
Figure 52: Block Diagram of Display Photonic Systems Architecture
107
Figure 53: ImagineOptix PG-Based Pico Module
108
Figure 54: Polarization Recycling in the MM200 Module from 3M
110
Figure 55: LED Recycling from Wavien
111
Figure 56: LED Light Collection with a Color-combining Prism from Syndiant
112
Figure 57: LED combiner from Optoma PK-101
113
Figure 58: Two Channel illumination path
113
Figure 59: Typical Non-Linearities of LEDs
114
Figure 60: Spectra of the Osram Oslon LX Series
115
Figure 61: White LED from 3M MPro 110 Picoprojector
116
Figure 62: Red Light Increased by Recycling
117
Figure 63: Pico/Micro Projectors With Direct Green Lasers
119
Figure 64: Laser Speckle Reduction with FLC Cell
121
Figure 65: Focus-Free Microdisplay-Based Laser Projector
123
Figure 66: Block Diagram for a Himax Picoprojector Module
125
Figure 67: Pico/Micro Projectors with iPod Docks
127
Figure 68: PicoPix 1020 from Philips/Sagemcom
128
Figure 69: USB 2.0 A/B sockets
129
Figure 70: 3M MPro 180 Projector with Wi-Fi and Bluetooth
133
Figure 71: ViewSonic Wi-Fi Connectivity
135
Figure 72: Mobile Connectivity with WHDI and Amimon Low-Power Chips
137
Figure 73: WirelessHD Wireless Video Area Network ("WVAN") Example
139
Figure 74: Proposed Usage Models by the WiGig Alliance
140
Figure 75: Example Pico/Micro Projection Modules
145
Figure 76: Two Modules from Asia Optical
150
Figure 77: Light Blue Optics Projectors used at a Restaurant
152
Figure 78: BrightSign Digital Signage Display
152
Figure 79: HUDs Based on MicroVision PicoP Module at CES 2011
153
Figure 80: F-35 and Virtual HUD
155
Figure 81: Structured Light for 3D Contour Capture
157
Figure 82: Examples of Structured Light for 3D Contour Capture
158
Figure 83: VeinViewer from Christie Medical Holdings
159
Figure 84: Cell Phone Handsets with Integrated Picoprojectors
163
Figure 85: Technologies Competing with Embedded Picoprojectors
166
Figure 86: World-Wide Growth of Mobile Data Traffic
172
Figure 87: Mobile Data Traffic Breakdown by Application
172
Figure 88: Mobile Service Subscribers, 2000 - 2010
174
Figure 89: Data Consumption By Various Mobile Platforms
174
Figure 90: Example Smart Phone Handset With Hot-Spot Capability
176
Figure 91: Cell Phone Handset Options from Verizon Wireless
177
Figure 92: LG eXpo Handset With Attached Pico Module
178
Figure 93: Phones Offered by Orange UK
179
Figure 94: NTT DoCoMo Projectors
181
Figure 95: Cell Phone With TV, FM Radio and Picoprojector
184
Figure 96: Flo TV Viewer
186
Figure 97: Off-Grid but on the Internet
186
Figure 98: Evaluation Chart
192
Figure 99: 2011 Importance vs. Expectations
198
Figure 100: 2013 Importance vs. Expectations
199
Figure 101: 2015 Importance vs. Expectations
200
Figure 102: Worldwide Mobile Phone Sales and Growth Rates
203
Figure 103: Adjusted TAM for Embedded Picoprojectors
204
Figure 104: Market Penetration (after year of introduction into adjusted TAM)
205
Figure 105: Market Penetration For Smart Phones
206
Figure 106: Yearly Sales Penetration Models
207
Figure 107: Forecast Sales Penetration for Projector Phones
208
Figure 108: Sales Forecasts for Picoprojectors Embedded in Handsets
213
Figure 109: Revenue Forecasts for Picoprojector Modules Embedded in Handsets
215
Table of Tables
Table 1: Pico/micro Projector Market Segments
10
Table 2: Technology Combinations for Picoprojectors
15
Table 3: Application Trend Factors for Handsets
16
Table 4: Technology & Application Trend Factors for Handsets
17
Table 5: Pico and Micro Projector Differentiators
25
Table 6: Pico/micro Projector Market Segments
33
Table 7: Pico/Micro Projector Market Segments Expected Usage Profiles
34
Table 8: Roadmap of Events Expected to Affect Mobile Projector Sales
37
Table 9: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technologies
41
Table 10: Specifications for the Vivitek Model D510
44
Table 11: Properties of Various Color Gamuts in Figure 18
55
Table 12: Optimum and Acceptable Peak LED Wavelengths for Displays
56
Table 13: Optimum and Acceptable Laser Wavelengths for Displays
59
Table 14: Illumination from Various Sources
63
Table 15: Resolution Requirements for Pico/Micro Projectors
68
Table 16: Minimum Resolutions for Various Market Segments
69
Table 17: Text Character Counts for Various Display Resolutions
70
Table 18: Text Character Counts for Various Display Resolutions and Projector Lumens
72
Table 19: Technology Combinations for Picoprojectors
78
Table 20: Example Étendues
83
Table 21: Comparison of Microdisplay/Scanning Device Suppliers
86
Table 22: Micron Microdisplay Specifications
99
Table 23: Syndiant Microdisplay Specifications
100
Table 24: Himax CS Microdisplay Specifications
102
Table 25: Laser Category Definitions
117
Table 26: Availability of Different Laser Categories
118
Table 27: Laser Wall Plug Efficiency
118
Table 28: Approaches to Speckle Reduction
120
Table 29: Picoprojector Power Consumption Categories
123
Table 30: Advantages and Disadvantages of Various Wired Formats
131
Table 31: 60MHz Bandwidth Allocation
138
Table 32: Advantages and Disadvantages of Various Wireless Formats
141
Table 33: Pico/Micro Projector Module Components
143
Table 34: Pico/Micro Projector Module Manufacturers
146
Table 35: Known Handsets with Embedded/Attached Picoprojectors
162
Table 36: Key Specifications of a Picoprojector Module for Handsets
164
Table 37: Verizon Wireless Data Contracts
177
Table 38: Mobile-Only Internet Users
185
Table 39: Application Trend Factors for Handsets
189
Table 40: Technology & Application Trend Factors for Handsets
189
Table 41: Handset/picoprojector Criteria Definitions
193
Table 42: Importance and Expectations Ratings
195
Table 43: Progress in Picoprojector Modules
201
Table 44: Projector Phone Forecast Derivation
209
Table 45: Historical Pico/Micro Projector Data
212
Table 46: Picoprojector Modules Prices by Volume
214

 

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