3D HDTVs with Passive Polarized Glasses

Table of Contents
1
Report Methodology
7
2
Passive 3D Display Analysis
10
2.1.
Patterned Retarder
10
2.1.1.
How it Works
10
2.1.2.
General Pros/Cons of Passive Polarized
11
2.2.
Glass-based Approaches
12
2.2.1.
Comparison with AUO Approach
12
2.2.2.
Glass-based Patterned Retarder Pros/Cons
14
2.2.3.
Development Directions
15
2.2.4.
Panel Maker Supply Chain Review
16
2.2.5.
Product Review
20
2.3.
Film-based Patterned Retarder
22
2.3.1.
How it Works
22
2.3.2.
Film-based Patterned Retarder Pros/Cons
22
2.3.3.
Polarizer/Retarder Supply-Chain Review
23
2.3.4.
Panel Maker Supply Chain Review
26
2.3.5.
Product Review
29
2.4.
In-Cell Patterned Retarder
30
2.4.1.
How it Works
30
2.4.2.
In-Cell Patterned Retarder Pros/Cons
32
2.4.3.
Supply Chain Review
32
2.5.
Active Retarder
32
2.5.1.
Switching Active Retarder
33
2.5.2.
Scanning Active Retarder
37
2.5.3.
Pros/Cons
39
2.5.4.
Supply Chain Review
40
3
Price-Performance-Competitive Analysis
44
3.1.
3D Glasses
44
3.1.1.
Active Shutter Glasses
44
3.1.2.
Passive Polarized Glasses
45
3.1.3.
Head Tilt Issues
46
3.1.4.
Eye Fatigue Issues
47
3.2.
Competitive Analysis
48
3.2.1.
Brand Support for Passive 3D HDTVs
48
3.2.2.
Pricing Strategy
50
3.3.
3D Display Competitive Performance Analysis
53
3.3.1.
Ghosting
53
3.3.2.
3D Viewing Angles
54
3.3.3.
3D Resolution per Eye
56
3.3.4.
Clarity of Text and Icons
57
3.3.5.
3D Brightness
58
4
Market Analysis
61
4.1.
Market Development Analysis
61
4.1.1.
Content Creation
61
4.1.2.
Content Distribution
67
4.1.3.
Retail Environment
72
4.2.
Consumer Product Feedback
76
5
3DTV Purchase Decision Analysis
81
5.1.
Overview of Purchase Decision Analysis
81
5.2.
Technology Independent Analysis
83
5.2.1.
Definitions
83
5.2.2.
Analysis
86
5.3.
Technology Dependent Purchase Decision Analysis
90
5.3.1.
Definitions
90
5.3.2.
Analysis
93
5.4.
Scoring Summary
109
6
Forecast Model Analysis
110
6.1.
TAM Analysis
110
6.1.1.
Top Level World Wide TV Forecast by Technology and Region
110
6.1.2.
Adjusted TAM Based on Size and Technology
110
6.2.
Sales Penetration Analysis
112
6.2.1.
3D vs. HD vs. Stereo Audio TV
112
6.2.2.
Penetration Models
114
7
Forecast Results
117
7.1.
Top-Level Forecasts
117
7.2.
Passive 3DTV Forecast
119
7.2.1.
Methodology for Technology Splits
119
7.2.2.
Expected Forecast
120
7.2.3.
Optimistic Forecast
123
7.2.4.
Conservative Forecast
126
8
Conclusion
129
9
Appendix 1
130
     
Table of Figures
Figure 1: Flow Chart for the Passive Polarized 3D TV Analysis
7
Figure 2: Flow Chart of Common Forecast Analysis
8
Figure 3: Patterned Retarder with Circular Polarization
10
Figure 4: Black Matrix on Patterned Retarder
11
Figure 5: Comparison of AUO and Arisawa Structures
13
Figure 6: Comparison of AUO and Arisawa Manufacturing Process
13
Figure 7: Thinner Glass Substrates Offer More Options (courtesy of Corning)
15
Figure 8: LG Display's In-Cell Black Stripe Patterned Retarder
16
Figure 9: LG Display's 31" AMOLED Demo with Glass-based Patterned Retarder
19
Figure 10: Roll-to-Roll Manufacturing Concept from VRex
25
Figure 11: Wire Grid Polarizer Operation and Structure
25
Figure 12: WGP Film from Asahi Kasei
26
Figure 13: In-cell Retarder with Wire Grid Polarizer
31
Figure 14: Switching Active Retarder Configuration
34
Figure 15: Switching Active Retarder Operation
34
Figure 16: Switching Active Retarder Timing
35
Figure 17: Rise and Fall Times of Standard and Self Compensated LCDs
36
Figure 18: Compensated Active Retarder Timing
36
Figure 19: Scanning Active Retarder Configuration
37
Figure 20: Scanning Active Retarder Operation
38
Figure 21: Scanning Active Retarder Timing
39
Figure 22: Filtering and Packing to Create a Side-by-Side Image
68
Figure 23: Filtering and Packing to Create a Top/Bottom Image
69
Figure 24: Likelihood to Buy Survey Result
78
Figure 25: Georgia Tech Survey Results
79
Figure 26: Comparison of Shutter Glasses to Passive Glasses
81
Figure 27: Evaluation Chart
83
Figure 28: Purchase Decision Analysis - General Issues - 2011
88
Figure 29: Consumer Expectations Analysis - General Issues - 2013
89
Figure 30: Consumer Expectations Analysis - General Issues - 2015
90
Figure 31: LCD Patterned Retarder Importance vs. Expectations 2011
96
Figure 32: LCD Patterned Retarder Importance vs. Expectations 2013
97
Figure 33: LCD Patterned Retarder Importance vs. Expectations 2015
98
Figure 34: LCD Active Retarder Needs Analysis 2013
101
Figure 35: LCD Active Retarder Needs Analysis 2015
102
Figure 36: PDP Passive Needs Analysis 2013
105
Figure 37: PDP Passive Needs Analysis 2015
106
Figure 38: OLED Passive Needs Analysis 2013
108
Figure 39: OLED Passive Needs Analysis 2015
109
Figure 40: Worldwide Total Available Market for TVs
112
Figure 41: Worldwide Adjusted Total Available Market for TVs (>30")
112
Figure 42: HDTV Penetration by Race/Ethnicity in the U.S.
114
Figure 43: Consumer Electronics Household Penetration Curves Normalized to Year Zero
115
Figure 44: Consumer Electronics Penetration Curves Normalized to 50%
116
Figure 45: Worldwide Top Level 3DTV Forecast Range
119
Figure 46: Active and Passive 3DTV Forecast - Expected Forecast
121
Figure 47: Passive 3DTV Forecast - Expected Forecast
121
Figure 48: LCD Patterned Retarder - Expected Forecast
122
Figure 49: LCD Active Retarder - Expected Forecast
122
Figure 50: PDP Passive - Expected Forecast
123
Figure 51: OLED Passive - Expected Forecast
123
Figure 52: Active and Passive 3DTV Forecast - Optimistic Forecast
124
Figure 53: Passive 3DTV Forecast - Optimistic Forecast
124
Figure 54: LCD Patterned Retarder - Optimistic Forecast
125
Figure 55: LCD Active Retarder - Optimistic Forecast
125
Figure 56: PDP Passive - Optimistic Forecast
126
Figure 57: OLED Passive - Optimistic Forecast
126
Figure 58: Active and Passive 3DTV Forecast - Conservative Forecast
127
Figure 59: Passive 3DTV Forecast - Conservative Forecast
127
Figure 60: LCD Patterned Retarder - Conservative Forecast
128
Figure 61: LCD Active Retarder - Conservative Forecast
128
Figure 62: PDP Passive - Conservative Forecast
129
Figure 63: OLED Passive - Conservative Forecast
129
     
Table of Tables
Table 1: Key Glass-based Patterned Retarder Panel Developers
20
Table 2: Known or Anticipated Products Using Glass Patterned Retarders
21
Table 3: Specification for LGD's Film Retarder Displays
27
Table 4: Comparison of Transmissivity from Glass-based (AUO) and Film-based (LGD)
27
Table 5: Known Passive 3DTVs for 2011
30
Table 6: Comments on some of RealD's Patents related to their ZScreen
42
Table 7: Active Shutter Glasses Assumptions
45
Table 8: Passive Polarized Glasses Assumptions
46
Table 9: Display-Glasses Polarizer Options
47
Table 10: Brand Support
49
Table 11: Qualitative 3D Ghosting Assessments
54
Table 12: 3D Viewing Angles
55
Table 13: 3D Resolution per Eye
57
Table 14: 3D Clarity of Text and Icons
58
Table 15: Approximate 3D Brightness to the Eye
60
Table 16: Content Creation Market Development Factors
66
Table 17: Difference between 2D and 3D Blu-ray Disc Authoring
71
Table 18: Summary of Market Development Factors for Content Delivery
71
Table 19: Insight Media Expectations for 3D Media and Events
72
Table 20: Retail Market Development Factors
75
Table 21: Technology Independent Criteria Definitions
84
Table 22: Details of 3D Source Quality Definitions and Ratings
85
Table 23: Technology Dependent Criteria Definitions
91
Table 24: Details of the 3D Image Quality Definitions and Ratings
92
Table 25: Importance and Scores for LCD Patterned Retarder
94
Table 26: Importance and Scores for LCD Active Retarder
98
Table 27: Importance and Scores for PDP Passive
103
Table 28: Importance and Scores for AMOLED Passive
106
Table 29: Purchase Decision Analysis Normalized Overall Scoring Summary
109
Table 30: Comparison of HDTV and 3DTV Transitions
112
Table 31: Panasonic 2DTV vs. 3DTV Comparison
130
Table 32: Samsung 2DTV vs. 3DTV Comparison
133
Table 33: Vizio 2DTV vs. 3DTV
136

 

Report Details