Insight Media Microdisplay, Display Intelligence

Report Details

2010 3DTV Forecast Report: A Comprehensive Worldwide Forecast of 3D Television Unit Sales by Region and Technology

Quick Facts

Date of Release:
Authors:

Publisher:
Number of Pages:
Number of Tables:
Number of Figures:

March 2010
Dale H. Maunu, Chris Chinnock,
Norbert Hildebrand
Insight Media
126
39
95

The Need:
CES 2010 was a watershed for developments related to 3DTV. Many TV brands announced their product lines, which included nearly 20 models for 2010. Major content creators like Discovery, DirecTV and ESPN announced plans to roll out 3D channels and services in 2010 and 2011. Cable operators are aggressively evaluating the roll out of services in 2010 too, while 3D movies in the theaters are a huge hit (look at the results of Avatar). All of the key ingredients for a 3DTV infrastructure and consumer service are in place, or about to be in place. 2010 will see significant excitement around 3D and the use of this content on TVs in the home. Therefore, a report that fully evaluates this space to provide a comprehensive and authoritative 3DTV forecast is needed by many players in the full 3DTV ecosystem.

Report Objective:
The objective of this report is to provide an authoritative 3DTV forecast for anyone with an interest in this exploding market opportunity. Other 3DTV forecasts already exist, but we wanted to produce the most thorough, well-researched and well-reasoned forecast to date. By providing details of our research, assumptions and forecast methodology, we allow readers to judge for themselves the strength and validity of the forecast.

We also wanted to provide a forecast that is both regional (we have 7 regions for the world) and provides a breakdown by the various 3D technologies that can be or will be used for 3DTVs (we look at 7 different technologies). The forecast provides a technology breakdown for each of the seven regions.

The ultimate objective of this forecast is to provide decision makers with a trustworthy forecast that can help them make business, investment and product planning decisions.

Methodology
Insight Media's approach to forecasting is unique and transparent. Insight Media developed a proprietary forecast methodology for 3DTV; we like to call it our convergence forecast as it represents the convergence of our top-down and bottom-up analyses. The flow chart of the analyses is shown in the Table below. Basically, this consists of two independent approaches -- a Tops-Down and Bottoms-up methodology that are then fused, converged, and validated from several directions to produce the final forecast. Our methodology, assumptions and results are transparent.

Figure 1: Flow Chart of 3DTV Forecast Methodology and Analyses

Highlights:

Total Available Market

Internal calculations based on TVs sales and replacement rates, plus household calculations by country reveal a Total Available Market (TAM) for TVs that is within less than 1% of other market research firm's forecasts

Penetration Models

Nearly two dozen products examined for best models to use for 3DTV adoption
Penetration models used to determine upside (optimistic) and base (conservative) forecast ranges based on historical data

Market Development Analysis lists assumptions by year for the following parameters:

Packaged Media Titles
3D Theatrical releases
Pay Per View events
Video on Demand channels
Cable / Satellite channels
Internet 3D Delivery
Terrestrial Broadcast 3D channels
Real time & Off-line 2D-to-3D conversion
Brand Support
3D Glasses
Overall TV trends and strategies

Technology Specific Price-Performance-Competitive Analysis

Done for RPTV, LCD (x-pol, active retarder, page flipping, autostereoscopic), PDP and OLED
Includes assumptions by year for pricing strategy, performance and functionality, brand support, market position, upside and downside potential

Consumer Expectations Analysis

Based on defining key parameters for consumer buying decision and satisfaction with 3DTV
Each parameter is rated by importance and ability to meet the expectations of the consumer.
Scatter plot of results indicates areas of concern and opportunity as well as general level of market adoption.
Charts created for technology-independent factors in 3DTV adoption and for each 3DTV technology.
Charts are created for 2009, 2011, 2013 and 2015 to see progression in market and acceptance conditions

Regional and Distribution Factors

Limited models in market for a limited time
Limited geographic distribution
Slower market development factors (like India and underdeveloped rest of world)

Final Forecasts

Top level
Top level by technology
Top level by regions
Regions by technology

Click here to view the complete Table of Contents.

Who Should Buy:

TV manufacturers and branders
Component suppliers to TV makers
Set top box, AV receiver, Blu-ray player manufacturers
3D content creators, producers and production personnel
Broadcaster, satellite, cable and Internet operators
Stereoscopic 3D gaming system developers and publishers
PC, graphics card and supporting hardware/software suppliers
PC manufacturers
Active and passive glasses suppliers/developers
Investors looking for information to support due diligence

Deliverable:
This report is delivered as a PDF file under a site license agreement.

Pricing:

2010 3DTV Forecast Report	$2,000 USD
Multi-site Report or Section Pricing	Contact: annmarie@insightmedia.info

For special section pricing options, please contact us.

Contact: Insight Media, Dian Mecca, dian@insightmedia.info, (203) 831-8464.

Report Details | Table of Contents | Press Release