2009 Low-Cost and Toy Projection Systems Report

1	Table of Contents			2
2	Introduction & Executive Summary			11
	2.1.	What is a Low Cost Projector?		11
	2.2.	Summary of Report Results		12
		2.2.1.	Microdisplay Technology	12
		2.2.2.	Light Source Technology	13
		2.2.3.	Achieving Low Cost in a Projector Design	13
		2.2.4.	Competitive Technologies	15
		2.2.5.	Low Cost Projector Categories	15
		2.2.6.	Projector Sales Summary	18
3	Technology			23
	3.1.	Design Tradeoffs		23
		3.1.1.	Reduced Resolution	23
		3.1.2.	Reduced Brightness	24
		3.1.3.	Reduced Lifetime	25
		3.1.4.	Reduced Color Gamut	26
		3.1.5.	Reduced Uniformity	29
		3.1.6.	Reduced Contrast	31
		3.1.7.	Feature Elimination	31
	3.2.	Projector Architectures and Imaging Devices		32
		3.2.1.	DLP Single-Panel Color-Sequential Systems	32
		3.2.2.	Transmissive LCD	36
		3.2.3.	Single-Panel LCOS	44
		3.2.4.	Laser-Based Technologies	48
	3.3.	Illumination Systems		51
		3.3.1.	Incandescent Lamps	52
		3.3.2.	Low-Cost HID Lamps	53
		3.3.3.	LEDs	61
		3.3.4.	Lasers	66
	3.4.	Other Components		68
		3.4.1.	Electronics	68
		3.4.2.	Add-ins	69
		3.4.3.	Other Projector Costs	73
4	Existing Low-Cost Projectors			76
5	Segment Analysis			80
	5.1.	Toy Projectors		80
		5.1.1.	Product Description	81
		5.1.2.	Use Models and Market	81
	5.2.	Companion Picoprojectors		86
		5.2.1.	Product Description	87
		5.2.2.	Use Models and Market	88
		5.2.3.	Integrated Picoprojector	88
	5.3.	Low Lumen Output Ultraportables		90
		5.3.1.	Product Description	91
		5.3.2.	Use Models and Market	92
	5.4.	Low/Medium Ultraportable Projectors		93
		5.4.1.	Product Description	93
		5.4.2.	Use Models and Market	94
	5.5.	Value Projectors		96
		5.5.1.	Product Description	96
		5.5.2.	Use Models and Market	98
6	Supply Chain, Distribution & Business Models			99
	6.1.	Supply Chain Management		99
	6.2.	Distribution for Low Cost Projectors		100
		6.2.1.	Toy Retail	107
		6.2.2.	Novelty Electronic Store	107
		6.2.3.	General Merchandiser	107
		6.2.4.	Internet / E-tailer	108
		6.2.5.	Warehouse Clubs	108
		6.2.6.	Big Box Electronic Retail	109
		6.2.7.	IT Retailer	109
		6.2.8.	Office Supply	110
		6.2.9.	ProAV	110
		6.2.10.	Local Camera/Electronics Stores	110
	6.3.	Business Models		110
		6.3.1.	The Marketing Challenge	111
		6.3.2.	The Revenue Model	113
		6.3.3.	Rental Market	113
7	Competitive Displays			114
8	BOM Estimates			118
	8.1.	LCOS Color Filter Array BOMs		119
	8.2.	Color Sequential LCOS BOM		122
	8.3.	3LCD BOMs		124
	8.4.	LCD Color Filter Array BOMs		126
	8.5.	DLP BOMs		130
	8.6.	BOM Summary		133
9	Low-Cost Projector Forecasts			135
	9.1.	Total Front Projector Forecasts		136
		9.1.1.	Optimistic and Conservative Forecasts	139
		9.1.2.	Summary Front Projector Forecasts	140
	9.2.	Penetration Rates		143
	9.3.	Value Projector Forecasts		145
	9.4.	Toy Projector Forecasts		152
		9.4.1.	Toy Projectors for Younger Children	152
		9.4.2.	Toy Projectors for Older Children and Teens	154
		9.4.3.	ASP and Revenue Forecasts	155
	9.5.	Low-Cost Companion Projector Forecasts		158
	9.6.	Low-Cost Ultraportable Projector Forecasts		161
	9.7.	Forecast Summary		166
		9.7.1.	Unit Sales Forecasts for Low Cost Projectors	166
		9.7.2.	Projector Average Selling Prices	168
		9.7.3.	Low-Cost Projector Revenue Forecasts	170
10	Appendix A - Players and Photos			172
	10.1.	Companies with Known Involvement in Low-Cost Projectors		172
	10.2.	Photographic Survey of Representative Low-Cost Projectors		177
		10.2.1.	Image Quality	178
		10.2.2.	Projector Design & Key Components	181
		10.2.3.	Torpedo	189
		10.2.4.	Phantiq	197
	Table of Figures
		Figure 1: Retail Price for a Low-end Mainstream and Value Projectors		13
		Figure 2: Unit Sales for Toy Projectors		15
		Figure 3: Lumen Output Limits for Ultraportable Projector Categories		16
		Figure 4: Expected Unit Sales Forecast of Low-cost Projectors by Category		18
		Figure 5: Optimistic and Conservative Unit Sales Compared to Expected		19
		Figure 6: ASP Forecast for Low-cost Projectors by Category		20
		Figure 7: Expected Revenue Forecast for Low-cost Projectors by Category		21
		Figure 8: Screen Diagonal vs Lumens		24
		Figure 9: Minimum Target Color Gamut for Displays		26
		Figure 10: Color Space for LED-Based Projectors		27
		Figure 11: Color Space of a Laser-Based Projection Display		28
		Figure 12: Telecentric vs Non-Telecentric Optical Systems		29
		Figure 13: Single-Panel LED-based DLP Projector Design		31
		Figure 14: Samsung SOM Linear Array Design		34
		Figure 15 Design of a Color Filter Array LCD Panel		36
		Figure 16: Colorimetry of Several Color Filter Array LCD Video Systems		37
		Figure 17: Design of a Lamp-Based 3LCD Projector		38
		Figure 18: Design of a LED-Based 3LCD Projector		39
		Figure 19: Dark Field and Bright Field Schlieren Optical Systems for Projection		40
		Figure 20: Operation of a PDLC - Scattering (Dark) State		41
		Figure 21: Operation of a PDLC - Non-scattering (Bright) State		42
		Figure 22: Color Sequential FLC Optical System		44
		Figure 23 - 3M's MPro110 and MPro220 Pico Projectors		46
		Figure 24: Color Filter Array on a LCOS Panel		46
		Figure 25: Color Gamut of LCOS CFA Projector		47
		Figure 26: Laser Scanning Systems		48
		Figure 27: Diffraction-based F-LCOS Optical System		50
		Figure 28: Cost vs Lumen Output for Various Illumination Technologies		51
		Figure 29: Spectral Output of Incandescent and UHP-type lamps		52
		Figure 30: Lamp and Cage		55
		Figure 31: Philips Ujoy Lamp		55
		Figure 32: Wavien DPR Lamp System		57
		Figure 33: ADLT 45W MH-Lamp		59
		Figure 34: Projectors with LED illumination		61
		Figure 35: Spectra of Blue, Green and Red LEDs		61
		Figure 36: Spectra of White LEDs		62
		Figure 37: LED Packages from Luminus Devices		64
		Figure 38: LED Binning by Color and Luminus Flux at Cree		64
		Figure 39: Mitsubishi LaserVue RPTV		66
		Figure 40: Projector Optical Architecture Based on Laser Illumination		66
		Figure 41: Cinemin Station (top) with iPod, Cinemin Stick (left) and Cinemin Swivel (right)		69
		Figure 42: 8GB CompactFlash Card & Hard Drive		70
		Figure 43: Epson MovieMate 55		71
		Figure 44: Front Projectors Priced Below $4,000		75
		Figure 45: Two $70 Digital Cameras		81
		Figure 46: Historical Toy Film Projectors		82
		Figure 47: Currently Available Toy Film Projectors		82
		Figure 48: Current or Recent Electronic Toy Projectors		83
		Figure 49: Smart Cycle from Fisher-Price		84
		Figure 50: Toy Products from Jakks Pacific		84
		Figure 51: 3M /Himax Light Engine and 3M MPro110 Companion Picoprojector		87
		Figure 52: The Logic Bolt Projector Phone		88
		Figure 53: Lumen Output Limits for Ultraportable Projector Categories		90
		Figure 54: Examples of Low-Lumen Ultraportable Projectors		91
		Figure 55: Meiloon Industrial Co Ltd, Ujoy Projectors		93
		Figure 56: The LG HS102, Samsung P400 & Taxan PL-105S LED-powered Projectors		94
		Figure 57: Typical Value Projectors		96
		Figure 58: Classes of Low Cost Projectors		100
		Figure 59: Channel Structure for Toy Projectors		101
		Figure 60: Distribution Options for Companion Picoprojectors		102
		Figure 61: Distribution Channels for Ultra Portable and Pocket Projectors		103
		Figure 62: Summary of Channel Structure for Low Cost Projectors		104
		Figure 63: Retail Price for a Low-end Mainstream and Value Projectors		114
		Figure 64: Sanyo PDG-DSU21N Mainstream/Value Projector		114
		Figure 65: Direct View LCD Screen Size that Can be Bought for $300		115
		Figure 66: Direct view 22" LCD Available in January 2009 for $280		116
		Figure 67: Front Projection Forecasts		136
		Figure 68: Revised Mobile Device Forecast from iSuppli		137
		Figure 69: Relationship Between Optimistic, Expected and Conservative Forecasts		139
		Figure 70: Front Projection Optimistic, Expected and Conservative Forecasts		140
		Figure 71: Expected Front Projection Forecast by Categories		141
		Figure 72: Optimistic, Expected and Conservative Forecast for Ultraportables		142
		Figure 73: Historical Consumer Electronics Penetration Rates		143
		Figure 74: Home Theater Projector Forecast		145
		Figure 75: Other Front Projector Forecast		146
		Figure 76: Home Theater Projector Estimated Unit Prices		146
		Figure 77: Other Front Projector Estimated Unit Prices		147
		Figure 78: Fraction of Home Theater and Other Front Projectors Under $300		148
		Figure 79: Unit Forecast for Home Theater Projectors Under $300		149
		Figure 80: Unit Forecast for Other Projectors Under $300		149
		Figure 81: Revenue Forecast for Home Theater Projectors Under $300		150
		Figure 82: Revenue Forecast for Other Front Projectors Under $300		150
		Figure 83: Toy Projector Sales in the US for Younger Children		152
		Figure 84: Worldwide Toy Projector Sales for Younger Children		152
		Figure 85: Forecast Range for World Wide Toy Projector Sales for Younger Children		153
		Figure 86: World Wide Toy Projector Sales for Older Children and Teens		154
		Figure 87: ASPs for Toy Projectors		155
		Figure 88: Revenue for Toy Projectors for Younger Children		156
		Figure 89: Revenue for Toy Projectors for Older Children and Teens		156
		Figure 90: Companion Projector Estimated Unit Prices		158
		Figure 91: Fraction of Companion Projectors Under $300		158
		Figure 92: Unit Forecast for Companion Projectors Under $300		159
		Figure 93: Revenue Forecast for Companion Projectors Under $300		160
		Figure 94: Low-Lumen UP Projector Estimated Unit Prices		161
		Figure 95: Low/Medium UP Projector Estimated Unit Prices		162
		Figure 96: Fraction of Ultraportable Projectors Under $300		162
		Figure 97: Unit Forecast for Low-Lumen Ultraportable Projectors Under $300		163
		Figure 98: Unit Forecast for Low/Medium Ultraportable Projectors Under $300		163
		Figure 99: Revenue Forecast for Low-lumen UP Projectors Under $300		164
		Figure 100: Revenue Forecast for Low/Medium UP Projectors Under $300		164
		Figure 101: Optimistic Low Cost Projector Unit Sales		165
		Figure 102: Expected Low Cost Projector Unit Sales		166
		Figure 103: Conservative Low Cost Projector Unit Sales		166
		Figure 104: Optimistic and Conservative Unit Sales Compared to Expected		167
		Figure 105: Optimistic Low Cost Projector Revenues		169
		Figure 106: Expected Low Cost Projector Revenues		170
		Figure 107: Conservative Low Cost Projector Revenues		170
		Figure 108: Projectors Reviewed - Torpedo (left), MMLP and Phantiq (right)		176
		Figure 109: Contrast Ratio		178
		Figure 110: Resolution & White Point		178
		Figure 111: Primary Colors		178
		Figure 112: Flesh Tones & Contrast		178
		Figure 113: Wii Main Menu		179
		Figure 114: Wii Sports Menu		179
		Figure 115: Wii Baseball		180
		Figure 116: The MMLP with Accessories		181
		Figure 117: MMLP Picture Gallery		182
		Figure 118: MMLP Lamp Removal Process		183
		Figure 119: The MMLP 150W Metal Halide, Double Ended Lamp		184
		Figure 120 MMLP Light Path & Key Internal Components		185
		Figure 121: Torpedo Entertainment Projector by Senario		188
		Figure 122: Torpedo Projector & Accessories		189
		Figure 123: Torpedo Photo Gallery		189
		Figure 124: Torpedo Lamp Removal		191
		Figure 125: Torpedo Electronic Components & Light Path		191
		Figure 126: Torpedo Key Optical Components		193
		Figure 127: Phantiq Game Projector by Phantastic		196
		Figure 128: Phantiq With Supplied Accessories		196
		Figure 129: Phantiq Photo Gallery		197
		Figure 131: Phantiq Lamp Removal		198
		Figure 132: Phantiq Fan Duct		199
		Figure 133: Phantiq Internal View (Side Elevation)		200
		Figure 134: Phantiq Imaging Module		201
	Table of Tables
		Table 1: Pixel Counts, Areas and estimated Prices for Various DLP Imager Formats		32
		Table 2: Estimated UHP-type Lamp/Ballast Prices		54
		Table 3: Examples of Low-Cost Projectors		77
		Table 4: Summary of Average Gross Margins by Channel		105
		Table 5: Imager/Light Source Combinations Likely to Lead to Low Cost Projectors		117
		Table 6: LCOS CFA with Metal Halide Lamp		119
		Table 7: LCOS CFA with Mercury (Ujoy) Lamp		119
		Table 8: LCOS CFA with White LED		120
		Table 9: Toy LCOS CFA with White LED		120
		Table 10: LCOS CFA with Tungsten-Halogen Lamp		121
		Table 11: Color Sequential LCOS with RGB LEDs		122
		Table 12: Toy Color Sequential LCOS with RGB LEDs		123
		Table 13: 3LCD Projector with Ujoy Lamp		124
		Table 14: 3LCD Projector with RGB LEDs		125
		Table 15: LCD CFA with Metal Halide Lamp		126
		Table 16: LCD CFA with Mercury Lamp		127
		Table 17: WVGA LCD CFA with White LED		128
		Table 18: QVGA LCD CFA with White LED		128
		Table 19: LCD CFA with Tungsten-Halogen Lamp		129
		Table 20: W/SVGA DLP with Ujoy Lamp		130
		Table 21: W/SVGA DLP with RGB LEDs		131
		Table 22: HVGA DLP with Ujoy Lamp		131
		Table 23: HVGA DLP with RGB LEDs		132
		Table 24: BOM Summary		133
		Table 25: Source for Front Projection Forecasts		136
		Table 26: Consumer Products with Delayed Acceptance Dates		143
		Table 27: Estimated Projector Selling Prices		168
		Table 28: Companies with Known Involvement in Low-Cost Projectors		171
		Table 29: Summary of Opto-Mechanical Properties of Selected Projectors		177

Report Details | Table of Contents