2009 Picoprojector Report

 
Table of Contents
  
1 Introduction & Executive Summary 14
1.1. Introduction: What is a Picoprojector? 14
1.2. Executive Summary 15
1.2.1. Markets 15
1.2.2. Human Factors 17
1.2.3. Technology 17
1.2.3.1. Image Sources 18
1.2.3.2. Light Sources 20
1.2.3.3. Other Picoprojector Technologies 21
1.2.4. Forecasts 22
1.3. Conclusions 25
2 Description of the Current Market 26
2.1. What is a Picoprojector? 26
2.2. Key R&D Issues 30
2.3. Who Is Buying Picoprojectors and Why? 31
2.3.1. Expected Picoprojector Markets 31
2.3.2. Survey of Picoprojector End-Users 33
2.3.2.1. Survey Demographics 34
2.3.2.2. About the Picoprojectors Used by Responders 37
2.3.2.3. Picoprojector Application and Use 40
2.3.2.4. User Satisfaction and Desired Improvements 45
2.3.3. Key Take-Aways From the Survey 47
2.4. Picoprojectors Currently on the Market 48
2.5. Key Market Trends 51
2.5.1. Handheld Devices 52
2.5.2. Picoprojectors with Portable and Desktop Systems 58
2.5.3. Other Markets for Picoprojector Modules 60
2.5.3.1. Industrial Applications 60
2.5.3.2. Medical Applications 61
2.5.3.3. Automotive Applications 62
2.5.3.4. Aviation 64
2.5.3.5. Toy Projectors 64
2.5.4. Likely Picoprojector Enhancements 66
2.5.4.1. Ultimate Integration 67
2.6. Market Pull vs Technology Push 70
2.7. Shortcomings of Current Displays 71
2.8. Shape of the Industry 72
2.9. Technologies In Competition with Picoprojectors 74
2.9.1. Direct View Displays 74
2.9.2. Mobile Companions 75
2.9.3. Low-lumen Ultraportable Projectors 76
2.9.4. Rollable, e-Paper and Reflective Displays 77
2.9.5. Head Mounted Displays 82
3 Picoprojector Requirements 87
3.1. Key Picoprojector Requirements 87
3.1.1. Integrated Projectors 87
3.1.2. Accessory Projectors 89
3.2. Picoprojector Human Factors 90
3.2.1. Resolution 91
3.2.2. Picoprojector Colorimetry 97
3.2.3. Projector Luminance, Image Brightness, Image Size and Contrast 105
3.2.3.1. Helmholtz-Kohlrausch Effect 108
3.2.3.2. Portable Projection Screens 109
4 Picoprojector Technology 111
4.1. Étendue and Power Limited Picoprojector Systems 111
4.1.1. Étendue Limitations 112
4.1.2. Power Limitations 116
4.2. Image Sources 116
4.2.1. Single Scanning Mirror 120
4.2.2. Two Scanning Mirrors 122
4.2.3. Color Sequential Transmissive LCD 123
4.2.4. DLP 124
4.2.5. LCoS CFA 126
4.2.6. Color Sequential LCoS 128
4.2.6.1. Micron (Formerly Displaytech) 130
4.2.6.2. Syndiant 133
4.2.6.3. Aurora 136
4.2.6.4. Himax 137
4.2.6.5. Phase Modulation Projection 138
4.2.7. Transmissive LCD 141
4.3. Illumination Sources for Picoprojectors 144
4.3.1. Polarization and Collection Efficiency 144
4.3.2. RGB LED Illumination 146
4.3.3. White LED Illumination 149
4.3.4. Laser Illumination 152
4.4. Power for Picoprojectors 157
4.4.1. General Power Requirements 157
4.4.2. Batteries for Picoprojectors 158
4.5. Picoprojector/Source Connectivity 163
4.5.1. Wired Connections 164
4.5.2. Wireless Connections 170
4.5.3. Internal Connections 173
5 SWOT Analysis 175
5.1. Image Sources 176
5.2. Illumination Sources 177
5.3. Imaging Arrangements 178
6 BOM Costs 180
6.1. BOM Methodology 180
6.1.1. Production Volume and Existing vs Optimized Components 181
6.1.2. BOM Estimates for Modules Intended to be Embedded in Systems 182
6.1.3. BOM Estimates for Accessory Picoprojectors 183
6.1.4. Integrating a Picoprojector Module into Other Systems 183
6.2. BOMs For Validation 184
6.3. Viable Technology Combinations 189
6.4. DLP BOMs 191
6.5. Color Sequential LCoS BOMs 197
6.6. Holographic Color Sequential LCoS BOMs 204
6.7. LCoS Color Filter Array BOMs 207
6.8. Raster Scanned Mirror BOMs 210
6.9. Spatial LCD (Display Photonic) BOMs 213
6.10. BOM Summary 217
6.11. BOM Conclusions 221
7 Forecasts 222
7.1. Forecast Methodology 222
7.2. Yearly Sales Rates 223
7.3. Total Available Market (TAM) 224
7.4. Roadmap for Forecast 227
7.5. Market Acceptance Evaluation 230
7.6. Expected, Optimistic and Conservative Forecasts 237
7.6.1. Forecast Drivers and Assumptions 237
7.6.2. Starting Sales Basis 239
7.6.3. Sales Level Evolution 239
7.6.4. Expected Picoprojector Module Forecast 240
7.6.5. Optimistic and Conservative Forecasts 241
7.7. Forecast Breakdown by Sub-Categories 243
7.7.1. Forecast Breakdown by Embedded vs Accessory 243
7.7.2. Forecast Breakdown by Power Consumption 248
7.7.3. Forecast Breakdown by Imager Technology 250
7.7.4. Forecast Breakdown by Light Source Technology 254
7.8. Picoprojector Industry Revenue Forecasts 257
7.8.1. Picoprojector Price Forecasts 257
7.8.2. Module Revenue Forecast 260
7.8.3. Industry Revenue Forecast 262
7.9. Forecasts for Other Applications of Picoprojector Technology 264
7.9.1. Unit Forecasts for Other Applications 264
7.9.2. Revenue Forecasts for Other Applications 265
7.10. Forecast Summary and Conclusions 271
8 Appendix 278
8.1. Picoprojectors on the Market 278
8.2. Players in the Picoprojector Market 285
8.2.1. Other Likely Players 300
     
 
Table of Figures
  
  Figure 1: Picoprojectors at Amazon.com 14
  Figure 2: Picoprojector Integration 16
  Figure 3: Conservative, Expected and Optimistic Sales of Picoprojectors 23
  Figure 4: Expected Unit Sales of Picoprojectors by Power 24
  Figure 5: Projector Categories Based on Lumen Output 29
  Figure 6: Publicity Photo of Integrated Picoprojectors 33
  Figure 7: Respondents by Region 34
  Figure 8: Respondents by Age 35
  Figure 9: Respondents by Working Environment 36
  Figure 10: Use of Other Projector Types 36
  Figure 11: Other Projector Types Used 37
  Figure 12: Where Picoprojectors Were Purchased 37
  Figure 13: Who Purchased the Picoprojectors 38
  Figure 14: Price Paid for the Picoprojectors 38
  Figure 15: Picoprojector Power Source 39
  Figure 16: Picoprojector Resolution 39
  Figure 17: Picoprojector Use Category 40
  Figure 18: Picoprojector Use Frequency 41
  Figure 19: Picoprojector Use Duration 41
  Figure 20: Picoprojector Use Location 42
  Figure 21: Type of Projection Surface 43
  Figure 22: Expected Content Type 44
  Figure 23: Actual Content Type 44
  Figure 24: Satisfaction with Lumen Output 45
  Figure 25: Satisfaction with Resolution 45
  Figure 26: Features Liked Best by Respondents 46
  Figure 27: Desired Improvements 47
  Figure 28: Photos of a Working Companion Picoprojector with Generated Image 49
  Figure 29: Photos of Integrated Projector/Cell Phones 50
  Figure 30: Photo of Picoprojectors from BeamBox and AAXA 51
  Figure 31: Apple iPhone Handheld Device 53
  Figure 32: $70 Projector Clock from Oregon Scientific 59
  Figure 33: Structured Light For Shape Determination 61
  Figure 34: Luminetx VeinViewer 62
  Figure 35: Automotive Applications for Picoprojector Modules 62
  Figure 36: LED-Based Avionic Display (after salt spray test) from Scram Technologies 64
  Figure 37: Toy Projector from Jakks Pacific 65
  Figure 38: Two $70 Digital Cameras 65
  Figure 39: Image Produced by an MPro-110 68
  Figure 40: Virtual Keyboard from I-Tech 69
  Figure 41: Virtual Touchpad from Funai 69
  Figure 42: Golden-i Gen 2 Demonstration Unit from Kopin 70
  Figure 43: Advertisement for a Knock-off iPhone 73
  Figure 44: Chocolate Handset (LG-BL40) from LG 75
  Figure 45: Red Fly CN8 Mobile Companion 76
  Figure 46: Dell M109s Low-Lumen Ultraportable Projector 77
  Figure 47: Polymer Vision Readius Rollable Display 78
  Figure 48: Sony Concept Laptop with OLED Display 79
  Figure 49: Plastic Logic e-Book Reader 79
  Figure 50: Sunlight Readable Netbook Display from Pixel Qi 80
  Figure 51: Myvu Personal Eyewear with Video iPod 84
  Figure 52: Personal Display Glasses from Mobintech 84
  Figure 53: Nikon Coolpix S1000pj 89
  Figure 54: Example Pixel Layouts 95
  Figure 55: Raster Types 96
  Figure 56: Colorimetry of LED Projectors 97
  Figure 57: LED Power Required as Red Wavelength Varies 100
  Figure 58: LED Power Required as Green Wavelength Varies 101
  Figure 59: LED Power Required as Blue Wavelength Varies 102
  Figure 60: Laser Power Required as Red Wavelength Varies 103
  Figure 61: Laser Power Required as Green Wavelength Varies 104
  Figure 62: Laser Power Required as Blue Wavelength Varies 105
  Figure 63: Brightness Enhancement of LED vs Lamp Projectors 108
  Figure 64: Portable Screen Used with an Ultraportable Projector 109
  Figure 65: High-gain Screen Used with an Ultraportable Projector 110
  Figure 66: Étendue Definition 112
  Figure 67: Étendue with uniform cone angle 113
  Figure 68: Étendue conservation with a simple lens 113
  Figure 69: Microvision Bi-axial Mirror Scanner 121
  Figure 70: Two Scanning Mirror System from bTendo 123
  Figure 71: Citizen Finetech Miyota Transmissive LCoS Microdisplays 124
  Figure 72: DLP Imagers and ASICs Optimized for Picoprojectors 125
  Figure 73: Projection Module from Sypro with the nHD Imager 126
  Figure 74: Picoprojector Module with Himax CFA Panel 128
  Figure 75: Pulse Width Modulation 129
  Figure 76: Micron Imagers 131
  Figure 77: Block Diagrams for Micron Imagers 131
  Figure 78: Syndiant W/SVGA Compared to TI DLP HVGA Pico Imager 134
  Figure 79: Syndiant W/SVGA Connectivity Compared to TI DLP HVGA Pico Imager 134
  Figure 80: Web Page Image Projected by a Syndiant SYL2010 Imager 135
  Figure 81: "Vienna" Color Sequential LCoS Panel from Aurora 136
  Figure 82: Himax Color Sequential LCoS Panels 137
  Figure 83: Driving Himax CS LCoS Panels 138
  Figure 84: Layout of a Light Blue Optics Projector 139
  Figure 85: Hologram, Subframe and Frame in a LBO Projector 140
  Figure 86: Block Diagram of Display Photonic Systems Architecture 142
  Figure 87: Transmissive LCD Panels for the Display Photonic Systems Architecture 143
  Figure 88: Display Photonic Systems Demonstration Unit 143
  Figure 89: Polarization Recycling in the MM200 Module from 3M 145
  Figure 90: LED Light Collection with a Color-combining Prism from Syndiant 146
  Figure 91: LED combiner from Optoma PK-101 147
  Figure 92: Two Channel illumination path 148
  Figure 93: Typical Non-Linearities of LEDs 148
  Figure 94: Spectra of the Osram Oslon LX Series 150
  Figure 95: White LED from 3M MPro 110 Projector 151
  Figure 96: Red Light Increased by Recycling 152
  Figure 97: RGB Laser Module from Osram 154
  Figure 98: Green Laser Package from Spectralus 154
  Figure 99: Detail of a RGB Laser Combiner from Microvision 155
  Figure 100: Laser Beam Integrator 155
  Figure 101: Example Lithium Ion Polymer Batteries 159
  Figure 102: Batteries for Integrated and Companion Projectors 159
  Figure 103: Unit Prices of Batteries Suited for Ultraportable Projectors 160
  Figure 104: Forecast Prices for Lithium Ion Polymer Batteries in 10K/Month Volume 161
  Figure 105: Estimated weights for Lithium Ion Polymer Batteries 162
  Figure 106: Block Diagram for a Himax Picoprojector Module 164
  Figure 107: Block Diagram for an Embedded Picoprojector Module 164
  Figure 108: Picoprojectors with iPod Docks 165
  Figure 109: USB 2.0 A/B sockets 168
  Figure 110: SWOT Analysis 175
  Figure 111: Yearly Sales Rates for Products with Various Success Levels 224
  Figure 112: Picoprojector WW Total Available Market (TAM) 226
  Figure 113: Sample Market Acceptance Evaluation 232
  Figure 114: Product Assessment Using the Evaluation Chart 233
  Figure 115: Market Acceptance Evaluation for 2008 234
  Figure 116: Market Acceptance Evaluation for 2010 235
  Figure 117: Market Acceptance Evaluation for 2012 236
  Figure 118: Market Acceptance Evaluation for 2014 237
  Figure 119: Expected Picoprojector Module Yearly Sales Rates into the TAM 240
  Figure 120: Picoprojector Module Expected Forecast 241
  Figure 121: Optimistic Picoprojector Module Yearly Sales Rates into the TAM 242
  Figure 122: Conservative Picoprojector Module Yearly Sales Rates into the TAM 242
  Figure 123: Picoprojector Optimistic, Expected and Conservative Module Forecasts 243
  Figure 124: Embedded vs Accessory Unit Market Share: Conservative 245
  Figure 125: Embedded vs Accessory Unit Market Share: Expected 245
  Figure 126: Embedded vs Accessory Unit Market Share: Optimistic 246
  Figure 127: Picoprojector Conservative Forecast Embedded vs Accessory 246
  Figure 128: Picoprojector Expected Forecast Embedded vs Accessory 247
  Figure 129: Picoprojector Optimistic Forecast Embedded vs Accessory 247
  Figure 130: Picoprojector Conservative Forecast by Module Power Levels 249
  Figure 131: Picoprojector Expected Forecast by Module Power Levels 249
  Figure 132: Picoprojector Optimistic Forecast by Module Power Levels 250
  Figure 133: Picoprojector Conservative Forecast by Imaging Technology 252
  Figure 134: Picoprojector Expected Forecast by Imaging Technology 253
  Figure 135: Picoprojector Optimistic Forecast by Imaging Technology 254
  Figure 136: Picoprojector Conservative Forecast by Light Source Technology 255
  Figure 137: Picoprojector Expected Forecast by Light Source Technology 256
  Figure 138: Picoprojector Optimistic Forecast by Light Source Technology 256
  Figure 139: Conservative OEM Module Revenue Forecast by Power Level 260
  Figure 140: Expected OEM Module Revenue Forecast by Power Level 261
  Figure 141: Optimistic OEM Module Revenue Forecast by Power Level 261
  Figure 142: Picoprojector Conservative Industry Revenue 262
  Figure 143: Picoprojector Expected Module Industry Revenue 263
  Figure 144: Picoprojector Optimistic Industry Revenue 263
  Figure 145: Expected Forecast of Picoprojector Modules for Other Applications 265
  Figure 146: Expected Picoprojector Module Transfer Price for Other Applications 266
  Figure 147: Expected Price Forecast of Picoprojectors for Other Applications 267
  Figure 148: Expected Module Transfer Revenue Forecast for Other Applications 268
  Figure 149: Expected Total Industry Revenue Forecast for Other Applications 268
  Figure 150: Optimistic, Expected and Conservative Unit Forecast for Other Applications 269
  Figure 151: Optimistic, Expected and Conservative Module Revenue for Other Applications 270
  Figure 152: Optimistic, Expected and Conservative Industry Revenue for Other Applications 270
  Figure 153: Total Expected Picoprojector Module Unit Sales 271
  Figure 154: Total Conservative Picoprojector Module Unit Sales 272
  Figure 155: Total Optimistic Picoprojector Module Unit Sales 272
  Figure 156: Total Expected Picoprojector Module Industry Revenue 273
  Figure 157: Total Conservative Picoprojector Module Industry Revenue 273
  Figure 158: Total Optimistic Picoprojector Module Industry Revenue 274
  Figure 159: Total Expected Picoprojector Industry Revenue 275
  Figure 160: Total Conservative Picoprojector Industry Revenue 275
  Figure 161: Total Optimistic Picoprojector Industry Revenue 276
  Figure 162: Four Sample Picoprojectors from CES 2008 278
  Figure 163: Five Sample Picoprojectors from CES 2009 279
     
 
Table of Tables
  
  Table 1: Key Specifications of a Picoprojector Module 17
  Table 2: Projector Categories that Could use Laser and LED Illumination 27
  Table 3: Products That Could Embed or Connect to Picoprojectors 31
  Table 4: Top Smart Phone Handset Vendors 54
  Table 5: User Costs for a iPhone Handheld Device 56
  Table 6: Picoprojector Human Factors Unknowns 90
  Table 7: Possible Picoprojector Pixel Counts 92
  Table 8: Optimum and Acceptable Peak LED Wavelengths for Displays 98
  Table 9: Optimum and Acceptable Laser Wavelengths for Displays 99
  Table 10: Illumination from Various Sources 106
  Table 11: Example Maximum Image Sizes From a Picoprojector 107
  Table 12: Example Étendues 114
  Table 13: Comparison of Microdisplay/Scanning Device Suppliers 117
  Table 14: Imaging Technologies no Longer Considered for Picoprojectors 119
  Table 15: Imaging Technologies Not Seriously Considered for Picoprojectors 119
  Table 16: Input Formats for Micron Imagers 132
  Table 17: Picoprojector Power Consumption Categories 157
  Table 18: Estimated Prices for 4, 7 and 14 Watt-Hour Batteries 162
  Table 19: Advantages and Disadvantages of Various Wired Formats 169
  Table 20: Advantages and Disadvantages of Various Wireless Formats 172
  Table 21: SWOT Analysis for DLP Microdisplays 176
  Table 22: SWOT Analysis for Color Sequential LCoS Microdisplays 176
  Table 23: SWOT Analysis for Color Filter Array LCoS Microdisplays 176
  Table 24: SWOT Analysis for Scanned Mirror Devices 177
  Table 25: SWOT Analysis for RGB LEDs 177
  Table 26: SWOT Analysis for Lasers 177
  Table 27: SWOT Analysis for White LEDs 178
  Table 28: SWOT Analysis for Direct Imaging 178
  Table 29: SWOT Analysis for Phase Control (Holographic) Imaging 178
  Table 30: SWOT Analysis for Scanning Systems 179
  Table 31: SWOT Analysis for Spatial LCD Systems 179
  Table 32: VGA CFA Picoprojector with Himax Panel & White LEDs 185
  Table 33: HVGA DLP Picoprojector with TI Pico Panel & RGB LEDs 186
  Table 34: VGA CS Picoprojector with Micron Panel &RGB LEDs 187
  Table 35: SVGA Picoprojector with Syndiant Panel and Lasers 188
  Table 36: WVGA Scanned Laser Picoprojector with Microvision Scanner 189
  Table 37: Technology Combinations for Picoprojectors 190
  Table 38: BOM for a RGB LED HVGA DLP System at 1.5W 192
  Table 39: BOM for a RGB LED nHD DLP System at 4.5W 193
  Table 40: BOM for a RGB LED WVGA DLP System at 9W 194
  Table 41: BOM for a Laser DLP HVGA System at 1.5W 195
  Table 42: BOM for a Laser nHD DLP System at 4.5W 196
  Table 43: BOM for a Laser WVGA DLP System at 9W 197
  Table 44: BOM for a RGB LED Color Sequential LCoS at 1.5W 198
  Table 45: BOM for a RGB LED Color Sequential LCoS at 4.5W 199
  Table 46: BOM for a RGB LED Color Sequential LCoS at 9W 200
  Table 47: BOM for a Laser Color Sequential LCoS at 1.5W 201
  Table 48: BOM for a Laser Color Sequential LCoS at 4.5W 202
  Table 49: BOM for a Laser Color Sequential LCoS at 9W 203
  Table 50: BOM for a Holographic LCoS system at 1.5W 204
  Table 51: BOM for a Holographic LCoS system at 4.5W 205
  Table 52: BOM for a Holographic LCoS system at 9W 206
  Table 53: BOM for a Color Filter Array LCoS at 1.5W 207
  Table 54: BOM for a Color Filter Array LCoS at 4.5W 208
  Table 55: BOM for a Color Filter Array LCoS at 9W 209
  Table 56: BOM for a 12 Lumen Scanned Mirror System 210
  Table 57: BOM for a 24 Lumen Scanned Mirror System 211
  Table 58: BOM for a WLED Spatial LCD System at 1.5W 214
  Table 59: BOM for a WLED Spatial LCD System at 4.5W 215
  Table 60: BOM for a WLED Spatial LCD System at 9W 216
  Table 61: Summary for 1.5W Picoprojector Modules 218
  Table 62: Summary for 4.5W Picoprojector Modules 219
  Table 63: Summary for 9W Picoprojector Modules 220
  Table 64: Roadmap of Events Expected to Affect Picoprojector Yearly Sales Rates 227
  Table 65: Resolution Roadmap and Forecast 230
  Table 66: Market Acceptance Evaluation Parameters 231
  Table 67: Estimates of 2008 and 2009 Picoprojector Sales 239
  Table 68: Shift Toward "Unconventional" Light Engine Designs 254
  Table 69: OEM Transfer Price Forecast of Picoprojector Modules 258
  Table 70: Retail Price Increment Forecast of Picoprojector Modules 259
  Table 71: Price Forecast of Accessory Picoprojectors 259
  Table 72: Commercially Available Picoprojectors 280
  Table 73: Known Players in the Picoprojector Business 286

 

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