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Quick Facts

Date of Release: Authors: Publisher: Number of Pages:

January 2009 Matthew Brennesholtz Robert Brown Chris Chinnock Insight Media 322

The Need:
The ultraportable projector with UHP-type lamp illumination has been an astonishingly popular product and currently accounts for about 47% of all front projector sales by unit volume.  The very strong value proposition of this product has led to significant sales into applications where portability is actually a secondary issue.  LED ultraportable projectors are already available but sales have been disappointing.  There is a strong need to understand the value proposition of LED- and laser-based ultraportable projectors (>50 lumens) in comparison to the value proposition of lamp-based projectors.  This will allow manufacturers of LED- and laser-based ultraportable projectors to design products with improved value proposition and market appeal.

Report Objective:
The objective of this report is to supply product planners, technologists, managers, engineers and researchers with the information needed to plan, design and market LED- and laser-based ultraportable projectors that have greater appeal to end users than these products have had to date.  The required information needed to plan these products includes a description of the existing ultraportable market, the value proposition of existing products, the problems with existing LED ultraportable projectors, performance data on ultraportable projectors, cost information and component availability.  In addition, significant effort has been made to evaluate a number of product entry and market growth strategies to aid in development of this market.  All key data including unit sales forecasts by sub-category and industry revenue are forecast from 2008 – 2013.  

Highlights:

• Evaluation of the price/performance ratio of existing ultraportable projectors, including both lamp and LED illumination
• Problems with the existing LED-based ultraportable projectors
• Detailed discussion of the advantages of LED and laser illumination over lamp illumination
• Analysis of ultraportable projectors’ ability to meet market needs
• Roadmaps to guide the introduction of LED and laser-based ultraportable projectors through 2012
• Details on batteries suited for battery powered projectors, including weight, cost and performance forecasts through 2013.
• Discussion of the Philips Ujoy lamp and other reduced power UHP-type lamps and their place in the ultraportable projector market.
• A review of the technical approaches to the imaging module in an ultraportable projector including current status and roadmaps of suitable microdisplay technologies
• BOM estimates for a variety of ultraportable projector configurations, including ones with LED, laser and lamp illumination and DLP, 3LCD and color sequential LCoS imaging technologies
• Detailed product entry and growth strategy evaluation
• Outputs of the detailed cost-performance model developed by Insight Media
• Unit sales forecasts for 10 different lumen output/light source technology combinations through 2013
• Optimistic, expected and conservative unit sales forecasts through 2013
• Optimistic, expected and conservative revenue forecasts through 2013, broken down by lumen output category and light source technology.
• SWOT Analysis of Lasers and LEDs in ultraportable projectors
• Profiles of 16 ultraportable projector manufactures known to have an interest in LED-based products

View the complete table of contents

Forecast analysis was done in four ranges, as shown in the Table below.  As indicated, the lumen ranges for each class of projector in creases over the forecast period, as this reflects the reality of the market.

Ultraportable Projector Categories for Forecast

Category	Range	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Low Lumen (aka Pocket)	Low	35	40	50	60	75	85
	Nominal	70	80	95	115	135	160
	High	100	115	135	155	180	205
Low/Medium lumen	Low	110	125	140	160	185	210
	Nominal	250	280	315	350	395	440
	High	390	430	475	530	585	645
Medium/High Lumen	Low	400	440	480	535	590	650
	Nominal	750	810	880	950	1030	1115
	High	1090	1170	1255	1345	1445	1550
High Lumen (aka ultraportables)	Low	1100	1175	1260	1350	1450	1555
	Nominal	2050	2165	2290	2420	2555	2700
	High	3000	3150	3305	3475	3645	3830

The Table below shows the illumination sources that Insight Media believes are most likely to be used in each class of ultraportable projector.  Forecasts were developed for each illumination source in each class of ultraportable projector.

Illumination Technologies Forecast for each Class of Ultraportable Projector

Category	LED	Laser	Ujoy	UHP	Comment
Low	X	X			Battery powered
Low/Medium	X	X	X		Battery/Wall power
Medium/High	X	X		X	Wall
High		X		X	Wall
Source: Insight Media

To support our analysis of market entry strategies, ASP and performance changes over the forecast period, Insight Media developed a sophisticated model that can evaluate nearly every combination of illumination source, imager technology and engine architecture for ultraportable projectors.  This model is used in a variety of ways to support different analyses.  For example, in the graph below, shows the ASP analysis for the Medium/High ultraportable projector class.  It shows the expected, high and low ASP limits for this class, plus the expected retail price of typical LED, laser and lamp-based projector in this category.  Similar charts describe the other three classes of ultraportable projectors.

A forecast for each illumination source in each ultraportable projector class is also developed that combines analyzes of pricing, performance, entry strategies, value proposition, competitive positioning and penetration curves of other products.  The following figure shows the forecast unit volume for ultraportable projectors in the low/medium lumen category with LED illumination.  Existing projectors in this category include the LG HS102 and the Samsung P400.  Each forecast is broken down into projectors to be attached primarily to handheld, portable and desktop systems.  The complete forecast sums up the other nine charts that are similar to the one below.
 

The report contains 167 figures and 68 tables.  In addition, many of the figures have attached data tables as shown in the sample forecast figure.

Methodology:
This report draws extensively on LED and laser information and forecasts in the Insight Media 2008 LED Projection Systems Report and the 2007 Laser Projection Systems Report and applies it to the ultraportable market.  Updated information on LEDs and Lasers available after those reports were issued was also incorporated.
This ultraportable report draws on a variety of sources for information on ultraportable markets, market needs and technology.  This includes:

• In-person, telephone and e-mail interviews with key people in the ultraportable business,
• Trade show visits, including both the show floors and private suites,
• Forecasts and other information on projection systems and related topics from other industry analysts
• News reports in the trade and general press
• Press releases from LED, laser, lamp and projector manufacturers
• Web-based information sources

All available data was correlated to settle discrepancies.  Forecasts, especially BOM cost estimate forecasts, were checked with experts in the industry with knowledge of the detailed cost structures of LEDs, lasers, lamps and ultraportable projectors.  Extensive Insight Media internal discussions were conducted to challenge our ideas, assumptions and conclusions for this report, to create what we believe is the most thought out and defensible forecast for this emerging market segment.

Who Should Buy:

• This report should be purchased by manufacturers of ultraportable projection systems, especially if they are considering systems based on LED or laser illumination
• The report is of value to people planning research, development or products for the ultraportable projector market
• Engineers and researchers involved in ultraportable projection systems
• Investors looking for information to support due diligence
• Anyone interested in the current or future ultraportable projector market

Associated Reports:

• The 2007 Laser Projection Systems report evaluates the use of laser light sources in projection displays
• The 2008 LEDs for Projection Systems report evaluates the use of LED light sources in projection displays 
• 2008 Pico-Projector Market Segment Analysis covers the use of use of LED and laser light sources in the emerging pico-projector market.
• 2007 Visualization and Simulation Market Segment Analysis, which covers the use of laser projector is visualization and simulation markets.  Currently there are no LED projectors targeted at these markets.
• 2007 Cinema and Large Venue Market Segment Analysis covers the use of laser projectors for digital cinema and other large venue applications.  Due to lumen requirements, LEDs are never expected to enter these markets.
• Lasers and LEDs in Head-Up Displays (HUDs) for avionic and automotive applications (release date: January 2009)

Report Comparison Table

For an explanation of coverage in our Pico, LED- & Laser-based Ultraportable and Toy Projector Reports, please see below:

Insight Media Report	2008 Pico-Projector Market Segment Analysis	2009 LED- and Laser-based Ultraportable Projector Report	2009 Low-Cost and Toy Projection Systems Report
Issued	April, 2008. To be updated Q2 2009	January, 2009	March, 2009
Coverage	Both integrated and companion picoprojectors	Ultraportable projectors	Stand-alone front projectors with retail prices below $300
Light source	LEDs now, also lasers in the study period.	LEDs and mercury lamps now, also lasers in the study period	Incandescent lamps and LEDs now, also metal-halide and mercury lamps in the study period.
Weight range	Always under 1 pound, more typically under 0.75 pounds.	About 1 pound to an upper limit of 4 pounds	Smallest are expected to be about ½ pound or a little less.  Largest will be 6 – 8 pounds or more.
Price range	$200 - $500 or more	Typically $400 - $2500	Currently $150 - $300.  Lower limit will reach about $40 by 2013.
Size range	Companion projectors easily fit in a pocket.  Integrated projectors fit inside a cell phone	Easily fit into a briefcase	No specific upper or lower limit on size.  The projectors are mostly portable, however.
Lumen Range	8 – 50 lumens	50 – 3000 lumens	Currently 8 – 150 or so lumens.  Expected to reach 2500 lumens during study period.
Comment	Currently none are commercially available with more than about 25 lumens.	Lower lumen projectors (<200lm) currently use LEDs, higher lumen projectors. (>1000 Lm.) use UHP-type lamps.  There are few if any projectors available in the 200 – 1000 lumen range.	Includes companion picoprojectors and ultraportable projectors that meet the price target of $300. Toy projectors are mostly expected to be under $150
There is no overlap between the picoprojector report and the ultraportable projector report.  The low-cost projector report overlaps both of the other reports.  The low-cost projector report estimates the percentage of all pico and ultraportable sales will full under the $300 limit.

About the Authors:
The principal authors of the 2008 Ultraportable Projector Report are Matthew Brennesholtz, Robert Brown and Chris Chinnock.   

Matthew Brennesholtz has worked in the display field since receiving his Masters of Engineering degree from Cornell University in 1978.  He has worked on direct view CRT systems and projection systems based on CRTs, oil-film light valves, DMDs, LCDs and LCoS.  In addition to system level work, he was involved in the design and testing of optical components for these systems.  Currently he is at Insight Media providing consulting and other services to the display industry.  He is also the lead author of the book Projection Displays, 2nd Edition, published in 2008 by John Wiley and Sons.

Robert Brown is the President of Robert Brown Associates.  Brown received his PhD. In Engineering from the University of Surrey and B.Sc. in Physics from the University of London.  He has written more than 110 research papers, conference publications and book contributions. He was the Editor-in-Chief of the ‘Handbook of Optoelectronics’.  Brown holds 19 patents and has applications for 6 new ones.  Brown was formerly the Director of Nanotechnology for Northern Ireland and Executive Director of the UK Institute of Physics.  He was also Head of Optoelectronics R&D for Sharp Labs Europe. 

Chris Chinnock is President of Insight Media, a company he started in 1998.  Insight Media provides technology, market and product intelligence through newsletters, special reports, custom consulting and conferences.  Chinnock takes an active role in all of these activities and is particularly active in strategic-level consulting projects.  Insight Media has a roster of over 600 companies that subscribe to various services, including custom consulting, on a worldwide basis.  Chinnock holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Electrical Engineering (BSEE) from the University of Colorado and for 15 years he worked in a variety of engineering, management and business development positions at companies such as MIT Lincoln Labs, Honeywell Electro-Optics, GE AstroSpace and Barnes Engineering.

Deliverable:

The report is delivered as a PDF file under a site license agreement.  On-site presentations and discussions of the data in this report are also available.

Pricing:

2009 LED- and Laser-based Ultraportable Projector Report	$2,950
Multi-site Report Pricing	Contact:  annmarie@insightmedia.info
Special Bundle Offer: 2009 LED- and Laser-based Ultraportable Projector Report and 2008 LEDs for Projection Systems Report	$4,500

For custom market segment analyses and/or on-site presentation of the results of this report, please contact Insight Media.

More Information: info@insightmedia.info.

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