Insight Media Microdisplay, Display Intelligence

Report Details

2008 Personal Viewers: Sony and Apple Eye Accelerating Growth

Quick Facts

Date of Release:
Publisher:
Principal Researcher
and Analysis:
Number of Pages:

August 2008
MCG

Steve Marsland
231

The Need:
Personal viewer sales growth is accelerating. Now that personal viewers (head-mounted displays or personal eyewear) have become competitive, sales of consumer personal viewers are accelerating each year, up from 50% in 2006 toward 100% growth in 2008. Consumer markets are forecast to grow to $1.1B in the base line forecast and $2.8B in the upside scenario. Faster growth is being driven by:

Decline in cost of microdisplays and components
Consumer acceptance of QVGA resolution and availability of VGA
Increased volume for all headsets and headset components
Anticipated entry of major players (Sony, Apple) into the market

The "Anywhere, Anytime Infotainment" revolution is under way and it is spurring use of Personal Viewers. Key factors include:

Rocketing increases in flash memory price/performance
Popularity of "pocket video platforms" such as iPod, mobile phones, and personal video players
Dramatic increases in content availability and portability
Video viewing and exchange popularity with consumers

Increasing use of camera phones to take video
Internet video-sharing websites (YouTube and similar)
Increasing availability of video for purchase on the Internet

Personal Viewers offer a comfortable way to view an acceptable-sized image on a pocket video platform while maintaining pocket portability.

Next Generation Designs:
Today's personal viewers only provide video images and the can limit the visibility of the environment. To overcome these limitations, Sony and Apple are developing the next generation personal viewer: the navigation/video sunglasses. These products will offer navigation features in full see-through mode as well as video viewing with a clip-on to block the background. These clip-ons will be available to provide limited blocking of the environment for peripheral viewing, or full blocking of the environment to enable video immersion when desired. This is similar to clip-on sunglass options.

This new versatile product generation will further accelerate acceptance and sales of personal viewers.

The large and profitable market for personal viewers for military use, already surpassing $1B in sales in 2008, will continue to grow to nearly $3B in 2012. Higher military sales are being driven by deployment of enhanced night vision viewers offering thermal imaging as well as night vision, increased used of thermal weapons sights and helmet-mounted displays, and the trend toward higher definition, color displays in military weapons systems.

The report focuses on likely market entry strategies, timing and products for Sony and Apple, key success factors for consumer adoption, and how other market players can benefit from Sony and Apple's entry.

Who Should Buy And Why:
The report is a comprehensive tool for consumer and vertical market electronics industry professionals to understand the timing and scope of emerging opportunities, and to develop their company's response to those opportunities:

Mobile phone headset and handset makers - Understand how and when displays will be incorporated into cell phone personal eyewear, pricing and cost impact.
Portable DVD makers - Understand opportunities for upscale portable DVDs incorporating Personal (big-screen) TVs, pricing and cost impact.
Cell phone network service providers - Higher-definition displays in headsets allows delivery of more sophisticated value-added wireless services.
PDA/Smartphone makers - Viewer Headset boosts attractiveness and usefulness of PDAs, design implications.
Personal Viewer (PV) makers - Understand how and when high-volume Personal Viewer sales will emerge, learn success factors for the emerging PV solutions
Microdisplay makers - Understand price and performance requirements and timing for the microdisplays to be incorporated in the new PV products

Scope And Questions Addressed:
The study incorporates a number of improvements in scope and coverage compared to the 2006 report, including:

Forecast by military, commercial and consumer markets
Discussion of Sony and Apple development of navigation/video sunglasses, product description for this new product
Detailed forecast of military sales by application/product
Detailed forecast of consumer sales by application/product
Formation and activities of the Personal Viewer Industry Association
Updated forecast of the adoption sequence for Personal Viewers by application
Two scenarios

Base line forecast with Sony market entry in 2010 with modest results
Upside scenario with Sony market entry in 2010 with good results and 2012 market entry by Apple

Forecast of microdisplay demand by technology, including demand for HTPS and DMD microdisplays for the first time

The study continues to incorporate the following features:

Market trends on video content and Anywhere, Anytime Infotainment
Streamlined graphical company profiles
Analysis of potential hurdles or obstacles to success
Detailed analysis of comfort parameters and specific comfort vulnerabilities and requirements for personal displays
Analysis of the consumer use model for Personal Viewers
In-depth review of the five key personal viewer success factors
Competitive positioning of companies by market
Forecast by type of personal viewer (binocular immersive, monocular, etc.)
Pricing trends on microdisplays
Consumer preference for microdisplay definition
New technology advances such as binocular designs
Forecast of microdisplay demand by resolution
Forecast of microdisplay demand by color
Forecast of microdisplay demand by technology
Appendix on comparative pricing and value for personal displays versus other types of displays
Appendix on basics of near-eye systems

A sample graph from the report follows:

Technology Scope:
The following display technologies are included:

SCS: Single crystal silicon
LCOS: Liquid crystal on silicon (including F-LCOS)
HTPS: High temperature polysilicon (AMLCD), which category includes other transmissive LCD microdisplays
LTPS: Low temperature polysilicon (AMLCD)
Beam-scan: Laser or optical beam-scan
OLED: Organic light-emitting diode, both small molecule and polymer OLED
DMD: Digital micro-mirror device
CRT: micro-cathode ray tubes

Market Scope:
Personal viewers designed for the following market segments are included:

Military
Commercial
Consumer

Product Scope:
The following types of personal displays are included:

Binocular immersive
Binocular see-periphery
Binocular see-through (navigation/video sunglasses)
Monocular see-around
Monocular see-through

Contents:
The study is 231 pages and includes:

Forecasts through 2012 with detail by market and product type including units and sales value for personal displays and for the derived market for microdisplays
Forecasts for two scenarios - Base Case (Sony enters 2010) and Upside (Apple joins Sony in 2012)
Pricing for personal displays and microdisplays through 2012
Detailed analysis of the Five C's - key success factors for personal displays

Cost/Performance
Control Interface/Cabling
Comfort
Content
Channels of Distribution

Detailed quantitative evaluation of key comfort parameters with review and summary of personal display comfort studies done over the past several years
Analysis of each consumer application including Personal Video Viewers, Navigation/Video Sunglasses, Toy Viewers, PC Gaming Viewers, Gaming Console Viewers and other applications
Company profiles for 31 personal display companies
Five appendices provide detailed analysis of personal display system basics, Personal Video Viewer price point, and study methodology

View the Table of Contents.

Methodology:
The study is based on a recent, wide-ranging industry phone survey. Marketing and technology leaders of major players throughout the value chain were surveyed by telephone during the summer of 2008. Secondary published sources were also consulted in preparing this study. The report also draws heavily on MCG's extensive research of applications for microdisplays accumulated over the past decade, including prior reports on personal viewers and in-lab testing of human factors of personal viewers.

Deliverable:
The report is delivered as a PDF file under a site license agreement. A printed report is also available.

About The Authors:
Steve Marsland was the principal researcher and analyst. Charles McLaughlin acted as senior author and final editor.

Support is available from the study's principal researcher, Steve Marsland. Purchasers of the study will receive free phone consultation about the report contents upon request. Addenda to the study for topics of interest to individual clients can also be discussed.

Pricing:

Option 1:

Single-site License, PDF version

$5,000

Option 2:

Single-site License, PDF version, plus 1 print copy

$5,250

Onsite presentation or consulting

Ask for quote

Contact: Insight Media, Annmarie Gabisch, (203) 831-8464, annmarie@insightmedia.info.

Report Details | Table of Contents