2008 Pico-Projector Market Segment Analysis

A study of the use of lasers and LEDs as an illumination source for integrated and companion pico-projection systems.

Table of Contents
1
Description of the Current Market
7
1.1.
Description of the Expected Market for Pico-Projectors
9
1.2.
Key Market Trends
14
1.2.1.
Handheld Devices
14
1.2.2.
Desktop Systems
21
1.3.
Market Pull vs Technology Push
23
1.4.
Shortcomings of Current Displays
24
2
Projector Requirements
25
2.1.
Key Technical Requirements
25
2.1.1.
Integrated Projectors
25
2.1.2.
Companion Projectors
27
2.2.
Advantages of Laser Illumination
28
2.3.
Technology Comparison
28
2.3.1.
Single Scanning Mirror
42
2.3.2.
Two Scanning Mirrors
43
2.3.3.
Color Sequential Transmissive LCD
44
2.3.4.
DLP
45
2.3.5.
LCoS CFA
46
2.3.6.
Color Sequential LCoS
47
3
System BOM Evaluation
53
3.1.
BOMs for Integrated Projector Modules
54
3.2.
BOMs for Companion Projectors
58
3.3.
BOM Conclusion
65
4
Forecasts
66
4.1.
Introduction
66
4.2.
Total Available Market (TAM)
67
4.3.
Expected Forecast for Pico-Projectors
69
4.3.1.
Companion Pico-Projectors
69
4.3.2.
Integrated/Embedded Pico Projectors
73
4.3.3.
Composite Expected Forecast
77
4.4.
Composite Optimistic Forecasts
80
4.5.
Composite Conservative Forecast
83
4.6.
Forecast Conclusions
86
4.7.
Discussion of Assumptions and Penetrations
89
5
SWOT Analysis of Lasers vs. LEDs
91
5.1.
Pico-Projectors vs Competitive Display Technologies
91
5.1.1.
Strengths
91
5.1.2.
Weaknesses
91
5.1.3.
Opportunities
91
5.1.4.
Threats
91
5.2.
LEDs vs. Lasers
92
5.2.1.
Strengths
92
5.2.2.
Weaknesses
92
5.2.3.
Opportunities
92
5.2.4.
Threats
92
5.3.
Lasers vs. LEDs
92
5.3.1.
Strengths
92
5.3.2.
Weaknesses
92
5.3.3.
Opportunities
93
5.3.4.
Threats
93
6
Major Players
94
6.1.
Current players
94
6.2.
Other Likely Players
102
6.3.
Portable Projection Screens
102
6.4.
Other Technologies
103
6.4.1.
Direct view displays
103
6.4.2.
Pocket Projectors
104
6.4.3.
Rollable and Foldable Displays
104
6.4.4.
Head Mounted Displays
106
Table of Figues
Figure 1: Existing Market for Pico-Projectors
8
Figure 2: Publicity Photo of Integrated Pico-Projectors from Microvision
11
Figure 3: Photo of a Working Prototype Companion Pico-Projector from Microvision
12
Figure 4: Photo of a Working Prototype Companion Pico-Projector from Upstream
13
Figure 5: Photo of a Mock-up of an Integrated Pico-Projector from Microvision
13
Figure 6: Apple iPhone Handheld Device
15
Figure 7: Cell Phone with Virtual Keyboard
18
Figure 8: Bluetooth and Camera Equipped Pen
19
Figure 9: Polymer Vision Rollable Display
20
Figure 10: Myvu Personal Eyewear with Video iPod
21
Figure 11: Batteries for Integrated and Companion Projectors
27
Figure 12: Microvision Bi-axial Mirror Scanner
43
Figure 13: Two Scanning Mirror System from bTendo
44
Figure 14: Iljin Blue Eye Projector with iPod
45
Figure 15: DLP Imagers and ASICs Optimized for Pico-Projectors
46
Figure 16: 3M Pico-Projector Module with Himax CFA Panel
47
Figure 17: Displaytech SVGA Imager Compared to TI SVGA Imager & ASICs
49
Figure 18: Syndiant WVGA Compared to TI SVGA Imager
50
Figure 19: Syndiant and TI ASICs
51
Figure 20: "Vienna" Color Sequential LCoS Panel from Aurora
52
Figure 21: Historical Consumer Electronics Penetration Rates
67
Figure 22: Pico Projector WW Total Available Market (TAM)
68
Figure 23: Expected Penetration of Companion Pico-Projectors into the Market
72
Figure 24: Expected Unit Sales of Companion Pico-Projectors
73
Figure 25: Expected Penetration of Integrated Pico-Projectors into the Market
76
Figure 26: Expected Unit Sales of Integrated Pico-Projectors
77
Figure 27: Composite Expected Penetration of Pico-Projectors into the TAM
78
Figure 28: Composite Expected Unit sales of Pico-Projectors
79
Figure 29: Expected Pico-Projector Revenue Forecast
80
Figure 30: Composite Optimistic Penetration of Pico-Projectors
81
Figure 31: Composite Optimistic Unit Sales of Pico-Projectors
82
Figure 32: Composite Optimistic Pico-Projector Revenue Forecast
83
Figure 33: Composite Conservative Penetration of Pico-Projectors
84
Figure 34: Conservative Unit Sales of Pico-Projectors
85
Figure 35: Conservative Pico-Projector Revenue Forecast
86
Figure 36: Pico-Projector Unit Sales Forecast Summary
87
Figure 37: Pico-Projector Revenue Forecast Summary
88
Figure 38: Four Sample Pico-Projectors from CES 2008
94
Figure 39: Portable Screen Used with a Pocket Projector
103
Figure 40: Flexible Display from LG.Philips LCD
104
Figure 41: Personal Display Glasses from Mobintech
106
Table of Tables
Table 1: Projector Categories that Could use Laser and LED Illumination
7
Table 2: Products That Could Include Pico-Projectors
10
Table 3: Comparison of Microdisplay/Scanning Device Suppliers
29
Table 4: Development Matrix Comparison Tables
30
Table 5: Integrated Pico-Projector Development Matrix
38
Table 6: Companion Pico-Projector Development Matrix
39
Table 7: Pico-Projector Human Factors Unknowns
41
Table 8: BOM for an Integrated Pico-Projector with Single-Mirror Scan
55
Table 9: BOM for an Integrated Pico-Projector with a Small Color-Sequential LCoS Imager and Lasers
56
Table 10: BOM for an Integrated Pico-Projector with a Small Color-Sequential LCoS Imager and LEDs
57
Table 11: BOM for an Integrated Pico-Projector with a Large Color-Sequential LCoS Imager and LEDs
58
Table 12: BOM for a Companion Pico-Projector with Two-Mirror Scan
59
Table 13: BOM for a Companion Pico-Projector with 0.41" SVGA DLP and LEDs
60
Table 14: BOM for a Companion Pico-Projector with 0.23" HVGA DLP and LEDs
61
Table 15: BOM for a Companion Pico-Projector with LCoS CFA Panel and White LED
62
Table 16: BOM for a Companion Pico-Projector with a Color-Sequential Transmissive LCD and LEDs
63
Table 17: BOM for a Companion Pico-Projector with a Small Color-Sequential LCoS and LEDs
64
Table 18: BOM for a Companion Pico-Projector with a Large Color-Sequential LCoS and LEDs
65
Table 19: Expected Pico-Projector ASP Forecast
69
Table 20: Low Pico-Projector ASP Forecast
82
Table 21: High Pico-Projector ASP Forecast
85
Table 22: Known Players in the Pocket and Pico-Projector Business
95
 

Report Details | Table of Contents | 2007 Laser Projection Systems Report