2008 3D Television Report

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1	Executive Summary	12
1.1.	Introduction to Stereoscopic 3D for Television	12
1.2.	Human Perception of Stereoscopic Images	14
1.3.	3D Display Technologies Suitable for 3DTV	15
1.4.	Encoding Standards for 3DTV	17
1.5.	Forecasts for 3DTV	18
2	Human Factors of 3D Stereo Perception	22
2.1.	Normal Perception of 3D	22
2.2.	Anomalous Perception of 3D	26
3	Existing Content for 3DTV	28
3.1.	3D Content Desired by Consumers	28
3.2.	Movies	29
3.3.	Computer-Generated Imagery	31
3.4.	Computer Games	32
3.5.	Special Events	34
4	New 3D Content Creation	35
4.1.	Filming with two cameras	35
4.2.	Computer Generated Images	38
4.3.	Conversion of 2D to 3D images	38
5	2DTV Display Technologies	40
5.1.	Introduction	40
5.2.	Projection Technology	40
5.2.1.	Digital Light Processing (DLP)	40
5.2.1.1.	The DMD	40
5.2.1.2.	1-Chip vs. 3-Chip	42
5.2.1.3.	Smooth Picture	43
5.2.2.	Liquid Crystal on Silicon (LCoS) Technology	44
5.2.2.1.	3-Panel LCOS	46
5.2.2.2.	Single Panel LCOS	47
5.2.3.	3LCD Technology	48
5.2.4.	Other Projection Technologies	51
5.3.	Direct View LCD Technology	52
5.4.	PDP Technology	54
5.5.	OLED Displays	56
6	3DTV Display Technologies	59
6.1.	3D Overview	59
6.1.1.	Stereoscopic Images	59
6.1.2.	Active and Passive Glasses	60
6.1.3.	Backward-Compatible Anaglyphic Techniques	64
6.1.4.	The Infitec 3D System	66
6.2.	3D Family Tree	68
6.2.1.	Time Sequential	68
6.2.2.	Co-Located Pixels	70
6.2.3.	Spatial Separation	71
6.2.4.	Summary	73
7	3D Projection Systems	79
7.1.	Co-Located Pixels 3D (Two Projectors)	79
7.1.1.	Image Separation Techniques for Dual-Projector Installations	81
7.1.2.	DLP Options for Dual-Projectors or Engines	81
7.1.3.	3LCD/LCOS Options for Dual Projectors or Engines	84
7.2.	Time Sequential 3D (One Projector)	89
7.2.1.	Image Separation Techniques for Single Projector 3D	89
7.2.2.	Bandwidth and Bit Depth in Single Projector Systems	90
7.2.2.1.	External Bandwidth Requirement	91
7.2.3.	DLP Options for Single Projector Time Sequential	92
7.2.3.1.	Full Pixel Count Front Projection Systems	92
7.2.3.2.	Half Pixel Count SmoothPicture Rear-Projection Systems	98
7.2.3.3.	Conclusions for Single-Projector DLP 3D Systems	101
7.2.4.	3LCD/LCoS Options	101
7.3.	Opportunity Analysis for 3D Projection Systems	103
8	3D AMLCD Television	106
8.1.	AMLCD 3D with Glasses	110
8.1.1.	Micropolarizer Approach	110
8.1.2.	Stacked Dual LCD Approach	120
8.1.3.	Optically Combined LCD Displays	124
8.1.4.	Field Sequential AMLCD 3DTV	125
8.2.	Autostereoscopic AMLCD Approaches	131
8.2.1.	Parallax Barrier 3D	132
8.2.2.	Lenticular (Multi-View) 3D	135
9	3D Plasma Television	138
10	3D OLED Television	140
11	3DTV Content Delivery	142
11.1.	Understanding TV Content Delivery Chains	142
11.1.1.	Production, contribution, distribution and display levels	142
11.1.2.	Video Standards and Recording Formats	143
11.2.	Backward Compatibility Requirement for 3DTV Formats	150
11.2.1.	Producing 3D on 2D equipment: Production Compatibility	151
11.2.2.	Transporting and Recording 3D on 2D Equipment: Contribution Compatibility	152
11.2.3.	Watching 3D as 2D on a 2DTV set: Standard Backward Compatibility.	152
11.2.4.	Watching 3D as 3D on a 2D set: Hardware Retrofitting	152
11.2.5.	Watching 2D as 2D on a 3DTV Set: Content Continuity	153
11.2.6.	Watching 2D as 3D on a 3DTV set: Content Retrofitting	153
11.3.	Delivery Chain Compatibility with 3D Content	153
11.3.1.	Geometry of the Native 3D Picture	153
11.3.2.	Transmitting Full 3D Over Existing 2D Chains: Dual Stream 3D	155
11.3.3.	Squeezing 3D Inside Existing 2D Formats: 3D Multiplexing	157
11.4.	Comparison of Analog and Digital 3D Formats	159
11.4.1.	Structure of the Comparison Charts	159
11.4.2.	Dual Stream 3D	161
11.4.3.	Anaglyphic 3D	163
11.4.4.	Spectral Encoding	164
11.4.5.	Row Interleaved 3D	166
11.4.6.	Side-by-Side and Over-Under Anamorphic 3D	168
11.4.7.	Digital Spatial Compression (Sensio)	170
11.4.8.	Embedded Dual Stream	171
11.4.9.	Checkerboard and Other Pixel-Shuffling Formats	173
11.4.10.	Foreground and Depth Map	176
11.4.11.	Left and Right Views plus Depth Maps in Quadrant	178
11.4.12.	Foreground, Background and Depth Maps in Quadrant	179
12	Analysis / Prospects for 3DTV	184
12.1.	Signs of Progress	184
12.1.1.	Situation: The Chicken & Egg Gridlock is About to be Set Free.	184
12.1.2.	Strategies: Partnership to Build End-to-End 3D Solutions	184
12.1.3.	Strong Positions in the Race to 3D Format	185
12.1.4.	Open Options: The Disruptive Effect of the Digital Switchover	186
12.2.	Introduction to Forecast	188
12.3.	Total Available Market (TAM)	190
12.4.	Forecast for 3D-Ready and 3DTV	193
12.4.1.	RPTV Analysis	195
12.4.1.1.	Forecasts for DLP RPTV	196
12.4.1.2.	Forecasts for 3LCD and LCoS RPTV	200
12.4.2.	Plasma TV Analysis	204
12.4.2.1.	Forecasts for Plasma	205
12.4.3.	LCD TV Analysis	209
12.4.3.1.	Price Premium for LCD 3DTV	209
12.4.3.2.	Forecasts for LCD	211
12.4.4.	Front Projection Home Theater Analysis	214
12.4.4.1.	Forecasts for DLP Front Projection Home Theater	215
12.4.4.2.	Forecasts for 3LCD/LCoS Front Projection Home Theater	218
12.4.5.	OLED and Other Technologies	221
12.4.6.	Summary of Forecasts	222
12.4.6.1.	Summary Forecasts by Scenario	222
12.4.6.2.	Expected Summary Forecasts by Technology	225
12.5.	Who is Watching 3DTV?	229
12.5.1.	Sales of 3D Conversion Kits	229
12.5.2.	3D Source Forecast	231
12.5.3.	3D "Eyeball" Forecast	232
12.6.	Forecast Conclusions	234
12.6.1.	3D Eyeball Forecast	234
12.6.2.	Forecast Implications for TV Manufacturers	235
12.6.3.	Forecast Implications for Peripheral Manufacturers	235
12.6.4.	Forecast Implications for Content Creators	235
13	3D GLOSSARY	236
Table of Figures
Figure 1: Stereoscopic Display Technologies		16
Figure 2: Unit Sales of 3D-ready and 3DTVs		19
Figure 3: World Wide Revenue Forecast for 3D-ready and 3DTVs		19
Figure 4: Expected 3D-Ready & 3DTV Unit Forecast by Technology		20
Figure 5: Expected 3D-ready & 3DTV Revenue Forecast by Technology		21
Figure 6: Perspective Depth Cues are Aided by Learned Experience		23
Figure 7: Motion Parallax		23
Figure 8: Consumer Preferences for 3D viewing Content		29
Figure 9: 3D Movies since 1895		30
Figure 10: 3D Cinema Then and Now		30
Figure 11: 22-inch 3D LCD Monitors for Gamers		33
Figure 12: Professional 3D Video Cameras		36
Figure 13: Consumer 3D Video Camera from ColorCode 3D		36
Figure 14: Imax 3D Film Camera		37
Figure 15: Digital Micromirror Device (DMD)		41
Figure 16: DLP Projector Designs		42
Figure 17: DLP Projector with SmoothPicture		43
Figure 18: Cross Section of an LCOS Panel		45
Figure 19: Standard 3-Panel MacNeille type 3PBS/X-cube Architecture		46
Figure 20: CQ3 3-Panel LCOS Architecture		47
Figure 21: FSC Single Panel LCOS Architecture		48
Figure 22: Cross Section of a Transmissive HTPS LCD Microdisplay Panel		49
Figure 23: Operation of a Twisted Nematic LC		50
Figure 24: Architecture for a 3LCD Projector		51
Figure 25: Linear Arrays for Projection Applications		52
Figure 26: LCD vs. CRT Unit Sales		53
Figure 27: Structure of a LCD-TV		54
Figure 28: Structure of a Plasma Display Panel		55
Figure 29: Structure of a Surface Discharge Plasma Cell		56
Figure 30: OLED Structure		57
Figure 31: Sony XEL-1 OLED TV		58
Figure 32: Stereoscopic 3D Imagery		59
Figure 33: Active and Passive 3D Glasses		61
Figure 34: SoftPixel Plastic Active Glasses		61
Figure 35: Disposable Polarizing Glasses		62
Figure 36: Disposable Glasses for Color-Based 3D		62
Figure 37: Dolby 3D Glasses using the Infitec System		63
Figure 38: Anaglyph 3D Image without Glasses		64
Figure 39: ColorCode 3-D Image		65
Figure 40: Eclipse 3D Image		66
Figure 41: Infitec RBG Spectral Filter Approach		67
Figure 42: Family Tree for Time Sequential 3D		69
Figure 43: Family Tree for Co-Located Pixels 3D		71
Figure 44: Family Tree for Spatial Separation 3D		72
Figure 45: Stacked Projectors for 3D		79
Figure 46: HDMI 1.3 Cable		92
Figure 47: 3-DLP projectors for eye-sequential operation		93
Figure 48: InFocus DepthQ Single Panel DLP projector for eye-sequential operation		93
Figure 49: Real D 3D Cinema Approach		94
Figure 50: Infitec/Dolby 3D Approach		96
Figure 51. Dolby/Infitec Color Wheels		96
Figure 52: DLP SmoothPicture Stereoscopic Video Format		99
Figure 53: Micropolarizer-based 3D AMLCD Architecture		111
Figure 54: Viewing Angle is Affected by Micropolarizer / Pixel Spacing		113
Figure 55: SpectronIQ 3-D 46-inch 3DTV		117
Figure 56: Arisawa P240W 3DTV		119
Figure 57: Micropolarizer 3D Monitors		119
Figure 58: iZ3D 3D Monitor		121
Figure 59: iZ3D Monitor Architecture		121
Figure 60: Perceiva DSD190		123
Figure 61: Optically Combined 3D Displays		124
Figure 62: Optically Combined 3D Display Architecture		125
Figure 63: Field Sequential Stereoscopic AMLCD Display Technology		126
Figure 64: Optically Compensated Bend (OCB) LCD		127
Figure 65: Field-Sequential Addressing		129
Figure 66: Field Sequential Operation with Scrolling Backlight		129
Figure 67: Lightguide Structure for Scrolling Backlight		131
Figure 68: Parallax Barrier 3D		133
Figure 69: Effects of Viewer Position		133
Figure 70: Switchable Parallax Barrier		134
Figure 71: Pavonine C190S Autostereoscopic AMLCD Monitor		135
Figure 72: Lenticular 3D		135
Figure 73: LG M4210D Autostereoscopic Monitor		137
Figure 74: 3D OLED Personal Display (eMagin Z800)		141
Figure 75: Standard Video Resolutions		144
Figure 76: Example of Pixel Aspect Ratio		146
Figure 77: Color spaces for video, digital cinema and film		147
Figure 78: Color sub-sampling		147
Figure 79: Physical Supports for Video Material		149
Figure 80: Side-by-Side Stereoscopic 3D		154
Figure 81: 4-Views 3D Image for Auto-Stereoscopic Displays		154
Figure 82: 2D Picture and Depth Map		155
Figure 83: Anaglyphic 3D		157
Figure 84: Simulation of Row Interleaved 3D		158
Figure 85: Anamorphic 3D Systems		159
Figure 86: 8-View Calibration Pattern		175
Figure 87: Detail of RGB Shuffling		175
Figure 88: Detail of Actual Autostereoscopic Picture		176
Figure 89: Left, Right and Depth Maps in Quadrant		179
Figure 90. Quadrant 3D Multiplexing		182
Figure 91: Quadrant 3D Multiplexing Project Structure		183
Figure 92: Historical Penetration Rates for Consumer Electronics		189
Figure 93: World Wide Television Forecast (26" and Larger)		191
Figure 94: World Wide Television Revenue (26" and Larger)		192
Figure 95: Average Selling Price (ASP) by Technology Forecast		195
Figure 96: DLP RPTV Expected Unit Forecast		197
Figure 97: DLP RPTV Expected Revenue Forecast		197
Figure 98: DLP RPTV Optimistic Unit Forecast		198
Figure 99: DLP RPTV Optimistic Revenue Forecast		198
Figure 100: DLP RPTV Conservative Unit Forecast		199
Figure 101: DLP RPTV Conservative Revenue Forecast		199
Figure 102: 3LCD/LCoS RPTV Expected Unit Forecast		201
Figure 103: LCD/LCoS RPTV Expected Revenue Forecast		201
Figure 104: 3LCD/LCoS RPTV Optimistic Unit Forecast		202
Figure 105: LCD/LCoS Optimistic Revenue Forecast		202
Figure 106: 3LCD/LCoS RPTV Conservative Unit Forecast		203
Figure 107: LCD/LCoS RPTV Conservative Revenue Forecast		203
Figure 108: Plasma TV Expected Unit Forecast		206
Figure 109: PDP Expected Revenue Forecast		206
Figure 110: Plasma TV Optimistic Unit Forecast		207
Figure 111: PDP TV Optimistic Revenue Forecast		207
Figure 112: Plasma TV Conservative Unit Forecast		208
Figure 113: PDP TV Conservative Revenue Forecast		208
Figure 114: Price Premium Data for Various Features		210
Figure 115: 46" 3D LCD TV Expected ASP Premium over 2D LCD		210
Figure 116: 3D LCD TV Conservataive, Expected and Optimistic Premiums		211
Figure 117: LCD 3DTV Unit Forecast		213
Figure 118: LCD 3DTV Revenue Forecasts		213
Figure 119: Home Theater DLP Expected Unit Forecast		215
Figure 120: Home Theater DLP Expected Revenue Forecast		215
Figure 121: Home Theater DLP Optimistic Unit Forecast		216
Figure 122: Home Theater DLP Optimistic Revenue Forecast		216
Figure 123: Home Theater DLP Conservative Unit Forecast		217
Figure 124: Home Theater DLP Conservative Revenue Forecast		217
Figure 125: Home Theater LCD/LCOS Expected Unit Forecast		218
Figure 126: HT-LCD/LCoS Expected Revenue Forecast		218
Figure 127: Home Theater LCD/LCOS Optimistic Unit Forecast		219
Figure 128: HT-LCD/LCoS Optimistic Revenue Forecast		219
Figure 129: Home Theater LCD/LCOS Conservative Unit Forecast		220
Figure 130: HT-LCD/LCoS Conservative Revenue Forecast		220
Figure 131: AMOLED Expected Unit Forecast		221
Figure 132: OLED TV Expected Revenue Forecast		222
Figure 133: World Wide 3DTV Unit Forecast		223
Figure 134: Revenue Forecast for 3DTVs		223
Figure 135: World Wide Unit Sales of 3D-Ready TVs		224
Figure 136: World Wide Revenue Forecast for 3D-ready TVs		224
Figure 137: Expected 3DTV Unit Forecast by Technology		225
Figure 138: Expected 3DTV Revenue Forecast by Technology		226
Figure 139: Expected 3D-ready TV Unit Forecast by Technology		227
Figure 140: Expected 3D-readt TV Revenue by Technology		228
Figure 141: Installed Base of 3D-Ready TVs		229
Figure 142: Sales of Accessory Kits for 3D Ready TVs		230
Figure 143: Installed Base of 3D-ready TVs Capable of Watching 3D Content		231
Figure 144: Installed Base of 3D Capable Systems (Conservative)		233
Figure 145: Installed Base of 3D Capable Systems (Expected)		233
Figure 146: Installed Base of 3D Capable Systems (Optimistic)		234
Table of Tables
Table 1: Stereoscopic Display Guidelines		26
Table 2: Some Recent and Upcoming 3D Major Motion Pictures		31
Table 3: Luminance Efficiency Values		74
Table 4: Co-Located Pixel 3D Options		75
Table 5: Time Sequential 3D Options		76
Table 6: Spatial Separation 3D Options		77
Table 7: 3D Projection Prospects - Co-Located Pixels		87
Table 8: 3D Projection Prospects - Time Sequential		105
Table 9: 3D AMLCD TV Overview		109
Table 10: Some Micropolarizer-based 3D AMLCD Monitors		114
Table 11: 3D Format Comparison Charts		160
Table 12: Dual-Stream and Frame Alternating 3D		161
Table 13: Anaglyphic 3D		163
Table 14: Spectral Encoding 3D		165
Table 15: Row Interleaved 3D		166
Table 16: Side-by-Side and Over-Under Anamorphic 3D		168
Table 17: Digital Spatial Compression		170
Table 18: Embedded Dual Stream 3D		171
Table 19: Checkerboard and Other Pixel-Shuffling Formats		173
Table 20: Foreground and Depth Map 3D		176
Table 21: Left and Right Views plus Depth Maps in Quadrant		178
Table 22: Foreground, Background and Depth Maps in Quadrant Formats		179
Table 23: Retail Price Increment for OEM to upgrade 3D-ready to 3DTV		194
Table 24: 3D Source Forecast Summary		232

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