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Six panelists, two each representing the major display technologies
vying for share in the fast growing big screen DTV market (plasma, projection,
and LCD) squared off at the annual SID evening panel session to debate
whose was biggest and best. But moderator, Chuck McLaughlin of McLaughlin
Consulting Group (Menlo Park, CA) (www.mcgweb.com) chided panelists
in the early going for turning the debate into a "love fest."
Kicking off the evening with a brief market overview, McLaughlin reported
that a composite forecast of leading analysts projects huge growth in
big screen (>30 inches) sales. "Current sales of 12 M sets are
forecasted to rise to 28 to 45M by 2007. And the forecast by technology
has as wide a variance as the forecast for total units." McLaughlin
summarized forecasts in the following table.
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Panelists began by agreeing that big screen TVs were surely the next
big thing for displays and that they were all excited about the prospects
and felt that the market size would allow plenty of room for all technologies
to be winners. In this peace and prosperity model, LCD-TVs and PPD-TVs
would capture the performance end to the market, dividing share based
on screen size - LCDs getting the smaller sizes, plasma the larger.
Meanwhile projection displays and direct view CRT-TVs would continue
to exist in the price sensitive value segments.
Which all sounded good and fine until panelists were pushed to define
the screen size dividing line. Larry Weber, CEO of Plasmaco, put the
line at 40 inches through 2007. He and Harm Tolner, a former Philips
PDP manager, presented market and cost data to justify the position
that PDP-TVs would own the above-40-inch size range. The LCD spokesmen,
however, claimed dominance up to 40 inches within the next 2 years and
that by 2007, LCD-TVs in the 40 to 50-inch range would be market leading,
pushing plasma into the 60-inch plus range.
Sang Soo Kim, a VP at Samsung, reviewed their generation 7 fab projections,
claiming LCD costs would be lower than those of plasma. He reported
that, "AMLCD panel cost becomes very competitive when the size
of the mother glass enables 3 or more panels." For a generation
7 fab (1850 x 2150mm), six 42W panels can be made. Kim further predicted
that a 32-inch panel would cost $700 by 2005. Fellow LCD panelist Gary
Feather of Sharp also spoke confidently that LCD-TVs would rule based
on superior performance and lower costs.
Meanwhile panelists supporting projection television claimed their products
would be the value solutions, offering large screen sizes for the lowest
prices. Both Peter Van Kessel of Texas Instruments and Dave Slobodin
of InFocus Systems made a solid case for projection technology as the
value solution. However, neither of them claimed that there would be
a major improvement in RPTV viewing angles or that arc lamp lifetimes
would be more competitive.
McLaughlin called to question the issue of demand-pull. "Where
is all the money going to come from? The forecasts call for tens of
millions of dollars in incremental spending on big screen TVs,"
he cautioned. But Feather had the answer, "Women! Research continues
to show that women, not men, are driving consumer decision making on
flat panel TVs."
Despite the late hour the audience added some prickly points to the
debate.
- Q: When was the display industry going to establish standard
metrics to permit consumers to compare TVs? A: No time soon.
- Q: Why are metrics for plasma panels so frequently overstated?
A: no response
- Q: Why do display technologists have so little to say to
consumers about technology trade-offs? A: no response
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So while there was considerable debate on exactly where to draw the
competitive line, the fact remains that the big-screen TV market is
widely anticipated as the next big thing. And all of the players are
counting on carving out a significant share of the market.
McLaughlin Consulting Group, Chuck McLaughlin, 650-323-7155, chuck@mcgweb.com
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